The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) created history in Assam 5 years ago, ending the Congress’s 15-year rule with a decisive mandate that vaulted it to power in the state for the first time. BJP and its allies Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) won a combined 86 seats in the 126-member Assam assembly. On its own, the BJP won 60 seats, the AGP 14, and the BPF 12 seats.


After being in office for three straight terms under chief minister Tarun Gogoi, the Congress ended up with just 26 seats, feeling the sting of an anti-incumbency wave and popular desire for change.


Senior leaders of the BJP said the party’s alliance with the AGP and BPF had helped it build a much-needed local grassroots network which in turn helped it script victory.


The best move for BJP 5 years back was bringing Union minister Sarbananda Sonowal into the party.  Sonowal’s presence meant the BJP fought the election with a definite chief ministerial candidate—the first time that it did so in Assam.


 The BJP got a vote share of 29.5%, the AGP 8.1%, and BPF 3.9%. The Congress received a vote share of 31%, down from 39.39% in the last assembly election.


How will BJP fare in the upcoming elections?


According to the Opinion poll conducted by ABP News along with the CVoter Sonowal led NDA is likely to return to power as the NDA might get 73-81 seats in the upcoming polls in the 126 assembly, crossing the magic number of 63. UPA might go ahead in this election considering the previous election statistic but will still be left behind with 36-44 seats.


ABP News asked questions to the people of Assam to conduct the opinion:


Q1. Are you satisfied with the Central government?


Very Satisfied -25 %
Satisfied- 43 %
Unsatisfied- 20 %
Can't say- 12 %


Q2: How satisfied are you with PM Modi's work?


Very Satisfied 33 %
Satisfied-37 %
Unsatisfied- 16%
Can't say- 14 %


Q3. How satisfied are you with the Chief Minister?


Very Satisfied -35%
Satisfied-31 %
Unsatisfied- 22%
Can't say- 12 %


Q4. How satisfied are you with the state government?


Very Satisfied -33%
Satisfied-37 %
Unsatisfied- 19%
Can't say- 11%


 


Who will win the Assam polls?


According to the survey, Sonowal led BJP will sweep the Assam 2021 Assembly elections and will regain power in the states winning majority. 


NDA- 73-81
UPA- 36-44
AIDUF- 5-9
OTH- 0-4


Who will get the highest vote share?


BJP is already campaigning extensively in the state and is likley to get the highest vote share in the upcoming elections.


NDA- 43%
UPA- 35%
AIDUF- 8%
OTH- 14%


Key Takeaways of Assam Opinion Polls



  1. NDA is clearly in the lead over UPA by a vote share of 8%

  2.  Both NDA and UPA are increasing their vote share at the cost of AIUDF  and Others  

  3. The state leadership of Assam BJP and smaller allies have firmly cast away  NRC/CAA related controversies  

  4. The demise of Tarun Gogoi has generated some sympathy for Congress but  at the same time crystallized the polarization in state polity  

  5. AIUDF has lost a significant vote share in favor of Congress thus putting doubt over the utility of an alliance with the same.