Why Is There So Much Anger Against Agnipath Scheme, Especially In North India? Numbers Tell The Story

Agnipath Scheme Protests: The recruitment numbers buttress the anger among the Army aspirants. The Army recruited 80,572 candidates in 2019-20. Since then, there has been no intake.

New Delhi: The massive protests against the Centre's Agnipath scheme have largely been concentrated in north India as it sends the bulk of soldiers to the armed forces. According to 2019-2020 recruitment data shared by the Ministry of Defence in Parliament this year, eight north Indian states feature in the top 10 major contributors to the Army. And Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Bihar, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and J&K are the states that have been most singed by violence and arson over the Agnipath scheme.

The recruitment numbers buttress the anger among the Army aspirants. Most of the protesters have attributed the anger to the fact that the Army had stopped recruitment for the past two years. The Ministry of Defence, on its part, cited the Covid-19 pandemic for the suspension of recruitment rallies.

According to MoD data, the Army recruited 80,572 candidates in 2019-20, the largest intake since the Narendra Modi government came to power in 2014. The Army recruited 71,804 soldiers in 2015-16, 52,447 in 2016-17, 50,026 in 20187-18 and 53,431 in 2018-19. Thus, the Army hired more than 50,000 soldiers every year between 2015 and 2020.

The above numbers are only for the Indian Army. As per the Agnipath scheme, only 46,000 Agniveers would be recruited under the Agnipath scheme in the first year for all the three services combined -- Army, Navy and Air Force.

The Navy is going to recruit 3,000 (personnel) in the first year, the Air Force will recruit 3,500, while the Army will recruit 40,000.

With zero recruitment in the past two years, these numbers don't paint a rosy picture and have contributed to the anger among Army aspirants.

Moreover, the latest decision to raise the upper age limit for the Agnipath scheme for 2022 to 23 years will see more competition among candidates for the 46,000 posts, which have not been increased.

During the winter session of Parliament in 2021, the government informed the House that the shortage in the Army stands at 1,04,053 personnel, while there are 12,431 vacancies in the Navy and 5,471 in the Air Force.

Indian Army Recruitment: The Scenario In States

Now, coming to state-wise data, in 2019-20, 46,825 hirings out of the overall 80,572 were from the eight north Indian states of Uttar Pradesh (8,425), Punjab (7,813), Himachal Pradesh (5,882), Haryana (5,097), Bihar (4,559), Rajasthan (6,887), Uttarakhand (4,366) and J&K (3,796). Thus, these eight states accounted for more than 58 per cent of all recruitment in the Army in 2019-20.

If we see data for the 2015-2020 period, 1,76,435 people were recruited in the Army from Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Bihar, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and J&K. The overall recruitment in the Army for these years was 3,08,280. Thus, the share of these eight north Indian states in the total recruitment was over 57 per cent.

However, it must be noted that the differences in Army recruitment numbers between states are linked to their respective populations.

The drive to join the military in north India can also be gauged by the fact that most of the states contribute more to the Army than their share of the national population.

If we see 2019-20 data, Haryana, whose share of the national population is 2 per cent, contributed 6 per cent to the Army's intake. Similarly, Himachal Pradesh accounted for 7 per cent of Army's intake even though its share of the national population is 1 per cent. Punjab, whose share of the national population is 2 per cent, contributed 10 per cent to the Army's intake in 2019-20.

This explains why many youths in north India look to the Army as a career choice and after all, it is a secure government job. This is why the short-term recruitment for a period of four years under the Agnipath scheme has led to so much outrage.

Moreover, data shows that more than three quarters of the Army recruits come from rural areas. This is why the fury against the new recruitment policy has been limited to semi-urban districts and has not been seen in major cities.

In 2019-2020, recruitment from rural areas accounted for 77.20 per cent of the total Army intake. This share was 78.32 in 2018-19, according to government data.