The voters in North India seem to be far less inclined towards the BJP than they were five months ago. Currently only about 39% of the voters in this region are supporting the BJP/NDA compared to 45% in January.
This significant decline in the BJP’s share of the vote in the region has been primarily due to its sudden and precipitous fall in the all important state of Uttar Pradesh where the party has lost about 8 percentage points in popularity since the beginning of this year. The SP-BSP alliance which came into being two months ago is currently comfortably ahead of the BJP in terms of the electorate’s voting preference.
In Rajasthan, the other big state of the region, even as the BJP maintains an overall edge over the Congress, the latter has made substantial gains compared to the January survey. Moreover, at the assembly level, it is the Congress which leads the BJP.
Here is the probable seat-sharing in northern region.
In West and Central India, the NDA continues to maintain its lead over the UPA but a surge in support for the Congress in Gujarat has meant that the gap between the two national fronts has shrunk considerably. In May 2017, the NDA had led the UPA by 24 percentage points in this region.
In January 2018 this lead dropped to 8 points and now it has further reduced to just 5 points. Other than Gujarat, the Congress is also performing rather well in Madhya Pradesh where it is ahead of the BJP by a comfortable margin currently both at the Lok Sabha and Assembly election levels.
In Maharashtra, while the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance continues to be ahead, the Congress and the NCP are giving it a tough fight.