Uttar Pradesh: With the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections due to begin in two weeks, the Samajwadi Party continues to be ahead of its opponents according to the latest round of the opinion poll conducted in the state by ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS. Having resolved it’s internal differences and allied with the Congress for the upcoming election, the SP seems all set to form the next government in country’s largest state. SP and Congress is almost close to majority with 187-197 seats followed by BJP with 118-128 seats. BSP is getting 76-86 seats.
| Party Name |
Seat Share |
| SP & Cong |
187-197 |
| BSP |
76-86 |
| BJP+ |
118-128 |
| Others |
5-9 |
Overall Estimated Vote Share
The survey found the SP-Congress alliance to be securing at least 35 per cent of the vote followed by the BJP at 29 percent and the BSP at 23 percent. In December 2016, the second round of ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS’s Tracker survey in UP had found the SP to be getting about 30 percent votes with the BJP at 27 percent and the BSP at 22 percent. The Congress on it’s own was getting about 8 percent votes at that time.
|
Survey estimate
Jan 2017
(%) |
| Samajwadi Party+Congress |
35 |
| Bharatiya Janata Party+ |
29 |
| Bahujan Samaj Party |
23 |
| Others |
13 |
SP-Cong alliance was leading across all regions
The survey found the SP-Congress alliance to be leading across all regions of the state. The survey also found the RLD to be doing much better in this region, adjacent to Delhi than it was in December. The BSP was found to be in the third position in all but one region - Doab and Bundelkhand, where it was placed second.
| |
Frontrunner |
Second |
Third |
|
| Eastern UP - 142 seats |
SP+ 33 |
BJP+ 27 |
BSP 22 |
Oth 18 |
| Rohilkhand and Western UP- 96 seats |
SP+ 37 |
BJP+ 30 |
BSP 18 |
Oth 15 |
| Doab and Bundelkhand - 92 seats |
SP+ 34 |
BSP 29 |
BJP+ 27 |
Oth 10 |
| Awadh - 73 seats |
SP+ 38 |
BJP+ 35 |
BSP 27 |
Oth 1 |
Akhilesh continues to be the spontaneous CM preference of a plurality
The survey found the recent feud within the SP to appear to have had a limited impact on Akhilesh Yadav’s image as he continues to be the most preferred choice for chief minister. While in the December survey, 28 per cent of the respondents had expressed a spontaneous desire to see him back as chief minister. In this latest January survey the proportion has reduced only slightly to 26 per cent. BSP supremo Mayawati continues to be the second most preferred choice at 21 per cent. Interestingly, even though preference for Akhilesh as CM has dipped somewhat, the survey found him to be highly liked by voters. Fondness for Akhilesh Yadav is quite strong even among those who indicated a vote preference for the BJP. It was also quite high among upper castes, lower OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits, communities that have traditionally not been enthusiastic SP backers.
|
Dec 2016 (%) |
Jan 2017 (%) |
| Akhilesh Yadav |
28 |
26 |
| Mayawati |
21 |
21 |
| Narendra Modi |
5 |
9 |
| Mulayam Singh Yadav |
3 |
5 |
| Adityanath |
4 |
3 |
| Rajnath Singh |
4 |
3 |
| Rahul Gandhi |
3 |
1 |
| Other names |
15 |
15 |
| No response |
17 |
17 |
Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding
Shivpal Yadav blamed most for SP’s recent feud
Only a small proportion of the respondents blamed Akhilesh for the recent crisis in the party. Around 36 per cent blamed Akhilesh’s uncle Shivpal Yadav, 9 per cent took Amar Singh’s name, 8 per cent said Mulayam Singh, 7 per cent said Ram Gopal Yadav, and only 5 per cent put the blame on Akhilesh. Moreover, the SP feud seems to have had little impact on the voting intention of traditional SP supporters.
| SP feud was due to… |
% |
| Shivpal Yadav |
36 |
| Amar Singh |
9 |
| Mulayam Singh Yadav |
8 |
| Ram Gopal Yadav |
7 |
| Akhilesh Yadav |
5 |
| Azam Khan |
3 |
| Not aware of it |
10 |
| No response |
22 |
Many voters are not sure whether SP will benefit from alliance with Congress
Majority of the voters are not sure alliance with Congress will benefit Samajwadi Party or not. 43 percent of all respondents have no opinion on this. While 37 per cent think the alliance will prove beneficial for Samajwadi Party. Among respondents who vote for SP or Congress more than half (51 percent) think that the alliance will be fruitful for SP. 56 per cent of traditional SP supporters and 52 per cent of traditional Congress supporters also think that SP-Congress alliance will be beneficial for Samajwadi Party. One third (33 per cent) of BJP voters also have same opinion.
|
SP will benefit from
alliance with Cong-RLD |
SP won’t benefit from
alliance with Cong-RLD |
No
response |
| All voters |
37 |
20 |
43 |
| SP-Cong voters |
51 |
15 |
34 |
| BJP+ voters |
33 |
21 |
46 |
| BSP voters |
23 |
17 |
60 |
| Others voters |
30 |
38 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
| Traditional SP supporters |
56 |
14 |
30 |
| Traditional Cong supporters |
52 |
17 |
31 |
Note: Figures are percentages; they may not add up to 100 due to rounding
Anti-incumbency sentiment has weakened further in last one month
The three rounds of the Tracker survey conducted so far have found the anti-incumbency sentiment against the Akhilesh-led SP government to have weakened over time. In the first survey conducted in the state in July 2016, half the respondents (50 percent) had said they would not like the SP government to return to power. In December, this anti-government sentiment dropped to a little less than half (45 percent) and in the latest round it has further come down to one thirds (35 percent). This could be another indication of Congress voters now warming to the SP.
|
Aug 2016 (%) |
Dec 2016
(%) |
Jan
2017
(%) |
| SP govt. should get another chance |
34 |
39 |
43 |
| SP govt. should not get another chance |
50 |
45 |
35 |
| Can’t say/Maybe |
16 |
16 |
21 |
Jatav consolidation behind BSP intact, however other SCs moving away from it
In terms of caste and community support, not only is the SP-Congress alliance getting three-fourths support from it’s core voters – Muslims and Yadavs, it is also picking up about one-fifth votes from communities that have traditionally overwhelmingly backed it’s rivals. 21 per cent of upper castes, who have traditionally consolidated around the BJP (and, still are) were found to be voting for the SP-Congress alliance in the survey. 21 per cent of non-Jatav Dalits, who have usually voted largely for the BSP, also expressed support for the alliance. In fact non-Jatav Dalits seem to have yet again begun moving away from the BSP towards the BJP and SP-Congress. The lower OBC vote was also found to be getting fragmented three-ways with the BJP cornering one-third of it, the SP about one-fifth and the BSP a little less than that.
| Caste communities |
Vote %
for SP |
Vote %
for BJP+ |
Vote %
for BSP |
Vote %
for Oth |
| Upper castes |
21 |
59 |
8 |
12 |
| Yadavs |
73 |
12 |
5 |
11 |
| Kurmi Koeri |
39 |
37 |
14 |
11 |
| Other OBCs |
20 |
34 |
16 |
30 |
| Jatavs |
8 |
10 |
79 |
4 |
| Other Dalits |
21 |
24 |
47 |
9 |
| Muslims |
74 |
11 |
11 |
4 |
Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding
Outright support for demonetization has risen in UP in last month but it is still quite low
The sentiment against demonetization or
notebandi in the state has eased somewhat. Around 40 per cent of the respondents gave it outright support as opposed to only 35 percent in December. 30 percent (as opposed to 34 percent in December) thought it was the right decision but taken without adequate preparation, and 24 percent (up from 22 percent in December) were of the opinion that it was a wrong move that should never have been taken. Interestingly, very few among the 30 percent who partially back demonetization were planning to vote for the BJP. This had been the case in the previous round as well.
| Demonetization was a… |
Dec 2016
(%) |
Jan 2017
(%) |
|
|
| Right move |
35 |
41 |
|
| Right move but done with bad preparation |
34 |
30 |
|
| Wrong move, should never have been taken |
22 |
24 |
|
| No response |
9 |
5 |
|
Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Development is once again the top concern for most voters
Around one third (32 per cent) of the voters think that the core issue of these assembly elections is development, while 14 percent think price rise is the issue they would vote for. Another 12 per cent think employment is the core issue. Only 4 per cent respondents said that demonetization is the most important issue for them in these elections.
| If polls are held now, the most
important voting issue will be… |
August 2016
(%) |
Dec 2016 (%) |
Jan
2017
(%) |
| Development |
33 |
21 |
32 |
| Price rise |
18 |
11 |
14 |
| Unemployment |
10 |
15 |
12 |
| Corruption |
4 |
7 |
7 |
| Poverty |
4 |
7 |
6 |
| Demonetization |
-- |
8 |
4 |
| Electricity, roads, water supply |
3 |
2 |
2 |
| Farmer woes |
2 |
1 |
1 |
| Other issues |
7 |
9 |
10 |
| No opinion |
19 |
19 |
12 |
Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This analysis is based on the third round of the pre-election Tracker survey conducted in Uttar Pradesh by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, for ABP News. The survey was conducted from January 17 through January 23, 2017 among 6481 voters in 322 locations (polling stations) spread across 65 assembly constituencies. These are the same constituencies and polling stations where Lokniti had conducted the earlier rounds of the Tracker survey in July and December 2016.
