ABP-CVoter Survey: BJP To Retain Power In Uttar Pradesh With Massive Mandate In 2022 Assembly Polls

None of the Opposition parties including Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress seem to have voter's confidence in order to dislodge Adityanath government

Uttar Pradesh Assembly Polls 2022, C-Voter Survey: With months left for the much-crucial Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections, ABP News along with C-Voter conducted a survey to gauge the mood of voters in the poll-bound state.

According to the latest survey, CM Yogi Adityanath-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government is likely to return to power in the electoral contest of 2022 in Uttar Pradesh, the state with significant influence on country's political landscape.

None of the Opposition parties including Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress seem to have voter's confidence in order to dislodge Adityanath government in 2022, as things stand today.

The latest round of opinion poll has revealed that the incumbent government continues to be the most preferred choice for people in country's most populous state.

Voter Shares

According to the survey data, the ruling BJP is expected to grab 41.3 per cent of vote share in the upcoming assembly polls in the state. Notably, the saffron party has been continuously maintained its vote share of around 41 per cent in the state - in 2017 Assembly elections BJP had garnered 41.4 per cent of the votes polled in the state.

Meanwhile, the vote share of former CM Akhilesh Yadav-led SP is expected to witness a jump of 8.8 per cent from 23.6 per cent in 2017 to 32.4 per cent in 2022. 

However, the survey reveals that Mayawati-led BSP's vote share is likely to witness a slump of 7.5 per cent from 22.2 per cent in 2017 to 14.7 per cent in 2022. 

Country's grand old party - the Congress, out of power in the state since 1989 is expected to get 5.6 per cent of the votes, the party had secured 6.3 per cent votes in 2017.

Seat Projections

Translated into seats, BJP+ is likely to grab somewhere between 241 to 249 seats in 2022 Assembly polls. Though BJP and its allies will witness a dip of seats from the figure of 325 seats they had secured in 2017, the alliance is expected to cross the majority figure comfortably.

The Samajwadi Party, emerging as the main contender is expected to improve its tally from 48 seats in 2017 to somewhere between 130 to 138 seats this time. 

The survey further shows that the BSP is continuously losing the political ground in the state as the party is expected to get 15-19 seats this time, it had won just 19 seats in 2017. Even the Congress will be reduced to single-digit figure of 3 to 7 seats.

[Disclaimer: The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 98000+ across 5 states (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur) & the survey was carried out during the period 4th September 2021 to 4th October 2021. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.]