ABP-CVoter Survey: There are elections for five State Assemblies in February-March 2022. Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand, and Punjab will go for the polls in March 2022. Except for Punjab, all these states are ruled by the Bhartiya Janata Part (BJP).
As per the latest survey by ABP News & CVoter, the ruling BJP is likely to retain their governments in Goa and Manipur.
In the previous election in 2017, the Indian National Congress was the single-largest party in both the states but failed to cross the majority mark. Thus, BJP managed to rope in MLA's from rival factions and also independent ones to support their governments in the state. The structure of both these Assemblies changed drastically after the election.
Trouble brewed for the BJP-led government of Biren Singh after six MLAs withdrew their support while three BJP legislators quit the party and joined the Congress on June 17. However, CM N Biren Singh won the trust vote by a comfortable margin of 28-16 on August 10 and the six Congress leaders had submitted their resignation from the Assembly soon after it.
ABP-CVoter Survey, October 2021 Predictions Manipur:
Under party alliance votes, ABP-CVoter Survey projected that INC will get 34.5 percent vote shares, BJP 35.6 percent, (dip from 40.5 in September 2021), NPF 8.6 percent, and Others 21.3 percent in the upcoming elections. While numbers of seats predicted are INC 23, BJP 28, NPF 6, and others 3.
The numbers augur well for the saffron party in the upcoming Assembly elections in the state.
| Alliance | 2017 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| INC | 35.1 | 34.5 | -0.6 |
| BJP | 36.3 | 35.6 | -0.7 |
| NPF | 7.2 | 8.6 | 1.4 |
| Others | 21.4 | 21.3 | -0.1 |
| Alliance | 2017 Results | 2021 Projection | Change |
| INC | 28 | 23 | -5 |
| BJP | 21 | 28 | 7 |
| NPF | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Others | 7 | 3 | 4 |
In the last Assembly elections in 2017, Congress emerged as the single largest party, winning 28 of the 60 seats falling short of the majority by three seats. The BJP finished second with 21 seats but formed the government with the support of 11 MLAs from the NPP, NPF, and independents, including one Trinamool Congress MLA.
ABP-CVoter Survey, October 2021 Predictions Goa:
Under party alliance, ABP-CVoter Survey projected vote share at 18.3 percent for INC, BJP to get 37.5 percent, AAP to get 22.8 percent, and Others 21.4 percent vote share in the upcoming elections. While numbers of seats were predicted for INC 4, BJP 27, AAP 5, and Others 6. This time the survey also projects the BJP to reign in power for the consecutive year.
| Alliance | 2017 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| INC | 28.4 | 18.3 | -10.1 |
| BJP | 32.5 | 37.5 | 5.0 |
| AAP | 6.3 | 22.8 | 16.5 |
| Others | 32.8 | 21.4 | -11.4 |
| Alliance | 2017 Results | 2021 Projection | Change |
| INC | 17 | 4 | -13 |
| BJP | 13 | 27 | 14 |
| AAP | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| Others | 10 | 6 | -4 |
In 2017, the Goa election results threw up a hung assembly in the state with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning 13 seats and the Congress 17 in the 40-member assembly. However, the BJP formed an alliance by drawing the support of the Goa Forward Party (GFP), Maharastrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), and two Independents, to reach the magic figure of 21 in the 40-member house.
DISCLAIMER
The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 81000+ across 5 cities (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa, and Manipur) & the survey was carried out during the period 1st August 2021 to 2nd September 2021. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.