ABP-CVoter Punjab Predictions: Though the Punjab Assembly election is almost a year away, current Chief Minister and Congress leader Captain Amarinder Singh set the ball rolling as he appointed the poll strategist Prashant Kishor as his Principle Advisor.
Last time in the 2017 Punjab assembly election, the battle was two way majorly between BJP - Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) alliance against Congress with Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) being an influencing part of the polls. In 2022, this can be a 4-way battle with BJP and SAD at differences due to the three Agri Bills there can be a split, Congress and AAP will be the other contenders in state assembly polls.
With infighting within the Congress, the fracturing tie between BJP- SAD and the growing presence of AAP in Punjab, makes it an interesting battle to watch. ABP News in order to understand how are the equations as of now in the state of Punjab conducted a survey with C-Voter.
VOTE SHARE
For the 117 members of the Punjab Assembly, as per the latest survey done by ABP News & C-Voter, the ruling Congress is losing ground in terms of vote share and AAP is making a big stride. If elections are to be held today, the ABP News C Voter survey suggests that Congress which got 38.5% of the vote share in 2017 assembly polls, will be at 31.5% of vote share a direct loss of 7%. Let us look at the other gainers and losers in vote share percentage.
| Parties | 2017 Results | 2021 Projection | Swing |
| INC | 38.5 | 31.5 | -7.0 |
| BJP | 5.4 | 5.0 | -0.4 |
| AAP | 23.7 | 36.5 | 12.8 |
| SAD | 25.2 | 21.3 | -3.9 |
| Others | 7.1 | 5.7 | -1.4 |
SEAT PROJECTIONS
Parkash Singh Badal led SAD lost the elections to Congress' Captain Amarinder Singh as they were only able to get 15 seats and their alliance partner BJP were able to fetch just 3 assembly seats after contesting on 23 in 2017.
While Congress managed to get 77 seats and AAP 20 in 2017 Punjab Assembly Polls, let us look at the latest seat projections as per the survey conducted by ABP News and C Voter.
| Parties | 2017 Results | 2021 Projection | Change |
| INC | 77 | 46 | -31 |
| BJP | 3 | 2 | -1 |
| AAP | 20 | 54 | 34 |
| SAD | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| Others | 2 | 0 | -2 |
As you can see, AAP is not only gaining major seats but is directly denting Congress seats hence pushing the chances of hung assembly as of now. The polling is still a year away so permutations and combinations can change drastically.
Issues like the ongoing Farmers' Protest, which involves Punjab and Haryana farmers majorly, against the centre will determine the course of future action for all the political parties in Punjab.
As of now, the ABP News-C Voter survey suggests that Congress projected seat range will vary from 43 to 49, while AAP will be able to snag between 51 to 57 seats, SAD is pegged at the range of 12 to 18 seats and BJP will fluctuate from 0 to 5 seats.