Dalits and Adivasis have not only shifted their vote preference but their prime ministerial preference as well.
Congress President Rahul Gandhi, who was the PM choice of 18% Dalits and 27% Adivasis in January, is now the choice of 25% Dalits and 30% Adivasis.
Modi on the other hand has seen his favorability drop from 35% to 25% among Dalits and from 42% to 37% among Adivasis.
Among most other communities too Rahul Gandhi’s favorability has gone up marginally and Modi’s has declined somewhat.
This has meant that nationally the gap between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi which was 17 percentage points in January 2018 is now down to just 10 points.
As of today Narendra Modi is the spontaneous PM preference of 34% of voters and Rahul Gandhi of 24%. These figures are also significant when compared with the Lok Sabha election.
Modi for the first time has dropped below his favorability level of 2014 when he was the PM choice of 36% voters. Preference for Rahul Gandhi on the other hand has climbed by 8 points since 2014. Interestingly, compared to the January survey, Modi’s favorability has declined and Rahul’s has increased the most among middle-aged and elderly voters.
The survey also tried to measure the likeability of the two leaders among the electorate. Prevailing wisdom would suggest that Narendra Modi would be a far more liked leader than Rahul Gandhi. However, surprisingly, the findings do not seem to indicate this. Both leaders were found to be liked in equal measure – 43% each.
Interestingly though, if we take into account the dislike figures as well, then currently Rahul Gandhi enjoys a greater net likeability of 11 points (43% minus 32%) than Narendra Modi’s 7 points (43% minus 36%).
