New Delhi: As the assembly elections approach in a matter of a few months, political parties are already in battle mode to woo voters and secure wins in the states going to polls in early 2022.


Uttar Pradesh, being the largest Indian state along with its significance in Hindi heartland and implications for the next general election, is the biggest contest wherein in ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Samajwadi Party (SP), Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are all striving to win the voters’ trust.


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While ruling BJP claims to have done a stellar job in developing the state, opposition parties like SP and Congress allege poor performance and anti-incumbency. 


So, in the run-up to the big UP contest, ABP News in association with CVoter sought to know what people think about the Adityanath-led government along with opinions on various related matters such as who is their preferred candidate to be the next Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. The survey garnered 12,894 responses.


When asked to rate the overall performance of Adityanath as the Chief Minister, most respondents deemed him Good (41.5 per cent). However, this was closely followed by those who termed his performance as Poor (37.4 per cent) while 21.1 per cent called it to be Average.


On who is their most preferable candidate to be the next chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, most respondents said Yogi Adityanath (42.8 per cent), followed by Akhilesh Yadav (32.2 per cent), and Mayawati (15.4 per cent). Priyanka Gandhi at 3.6 per cent and RLD’s Jayant Chaudhary at 1.6 per cent did not appear to have wooed the people as much as their respective parties would have expected. 4.4 per cent, meanwhile, opted for Others.


When respondents were asked whether they are angry with the CM Adityanath-led government and if they want to change it. The responses were as follows: 



  • Angry and want to change the government - 48.3 per cent

  • Angry but do not want to change the government - 27.5 per cent

  • Not angry and do not want to change the government - 24.2 per cent


The first option getting nearly 50 per cent of respondents to agree may be a worrying sign for the ruling BJP. 


In contrast, when people were asked to reveal, irrespective of whichever party they support or vote for, which party or alliance do they think will win the UP elections, the responses emerged favourable for the BJP.


45.3 per cent of respondents said that they think BJP would emerge victorious, followed by SP (29.8 per cent). Meanwhile, BSP at 8.1 per cent and Congress at 8 per cent did not get a hopeful picture among the people. 3.3 per cent kept some room open for other parties. Meanwhile, 2.8 per cent said they were unsure and  2.7 per cent expected a hung assembly


The respondents also shared their opinion on which factors do they think will significantly affect the upcoming assembly elections in UP.


Out of the options, Farmers’ protest (26.9 per cent) emerged as a key factor, followed by Communal polarisation (16.1 per cent), state government’s handling of COVID pandemic (15.2 per cent), and Crack-down on mafias, and gangsters (13.5 per cent).


10.6 per cent left room for other issues, while 6.7 per cent said Implementation of government schemes like anti-romeo squad, closing illegal slaughter houses, mukhyamantri swarojgar yogna, etc was a key factor.


On the other hand, PM Narendra Modi’s image (6.1 per cent), state government’s performance on the economic front (3.3 per cent), and BJP’s performance in recent assembly elections in other states and UP Panchayat elections (1.6 per cent) appeared to be seen as minor factors among the people.


Conclusion


While the survey results paint a hopeful picture for BJP with Adityanath emerging as the most preferable CM candidate, and the ruling party being seen as the most likely winner, the element of dissatisfaction with responses on performance and seeking change in dispensation may be a worrying sign for it. 


Will this trend give more scope for Akhilesh Yadav-led SP, emerging as the next preferred alternative, to make a comeback? Remains to be seen.