Himachal Exit Poll 2022: Close Contest In Hill State, Slight Edge For BJP

Himachal Exit Poll Results 2022: To understand the trend of the Himachal Pradesh assembly election, ABP News in partnership with CVoter brings Exit Poll results from the state.

Himachal Exit Poll Results 2022: The hill state of Himachal Pradesh went to polls in a single phase on November 12 to elect the 68-member assembly. The fate of 412 candidates lies sealed in the EVMs as over 75 per cent of votes were cast in the state. The counting of votes will take place on December 8. 

The state is witnessing a battle between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress but the new entrant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and 99 independent candidates, including 20 rebels from the BJP and seven from the Congress, can make their presence felt and change the overall picture on the counting day.   

The BJP and the Congress fielded candidates in all the 68 assembly constituencies, while the AAP on 67 seats, followed by BSP on 53, the Rashtriya Devbhoomi Party on 29, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) on 11, Himachal Jan Kranti Party on 6, and others on 9 seats.

In Himachal Pradesh, voters have traditionally changed the government every five years, and the Congress ran its campaign this time asserting that history would repeat itself and the BJP would be ousted from power. The BJP, however, confidently said throughout their campaigning that the 'tradition' would change this time and voters would give them another chance.

To understand the trend of the Himachal Pradesh assembly election, ABP News in partnership with CVoter brings Exit Poll results from the state. Let us have a look at the Himachal Exit Poll 2022 in-depth: 

ABP-CVoter Himachal Exit Poll 2022 — Vote Share Percentage

The BJP appears to be losing some ground and the Congress is also showcasing a marginal loss in vote share percentage as per the ABP News-CVoter Exit Poll Results 2022. AAP is gaining some of the vote shares while the Independents are able to get double digits vote share percentage, the ABP-CVoter Exit Poll 2022 suggests.

BJP will likely get 44.9% of the total vote share, which is 3.9% lower than the 2017 Himachal Pradesh assembly election figure. Congress is down by 0.6% and remains at 41.1% while AAP is projected to get 2.1% of the vote share in the Himachal assembly. Independents are pegged to get an 11.9% vote share as per ABP-CVoter Exit Poll.

ABP-CVoter Himachal Exit Poll 2022 — Seat Range Projection

ABP-CVoter Exit Poll Results 2022 for Himachal Pradesh suggest that BJP will be able to retain the hill state with 33 to 41 assembly seats coming in their kitty, which means they will be just two short of majority even if they get only the minimum seats projected. Congress will be breathing down BJP's neck but the projected seat range (24 to 32 assembly seats) suggest that it will not be enough to get over the hump — three short of majority even if they get the maximum seats projected.

With independents pegged to get 0 to 4 seats, they are set to play a big role in both scenarios, as has been the case in the past in Himachal.

CVOTER EXIT POLL RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Exit Poll / Post Poll personal interviews conducted on polling day and after polling day among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has a Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll-bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at the macro level and +/- 5% at the micro level VOTE SHARE projection with a 95% Confidence interval.