The 2019 Lok Sabha polls are just around the corner and the main stream political parties of the nation are leaving no stone unturned to give their poll campaign a major boost. The battle lines are still blurred as the political parties are in the process of stitching the best possible alliance which can give them the maximum leverage on ground and attract a larger voter base.

Uttar Pradesh which contributes the maximum members of parliament (80) to the Lok Sabha, generally plays the game changer in deciding who will form at the government in the General Elections.The political landscape in the Indo-Gangetic plain region is changing very rapidly with arch rivals Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party, without the Congress, stitching a 'Mahagathbandan' alliance to take on the BJP. Meanwhile , the Congress is all set to go solo and contest on all the 80 assembly seats.

PRESENT SCENARIO IN UTTAR PRADESH

Going by the recent results in both the 2014 Lok Sabha and 2017 UP State Assembly elections, BJP secured a thumping win in the Hindi heartland state, romping home to power with a thumping majority. In Uttar Pradesh, BJP had won a stupendous 71 out of the total 80 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections, helping its cause to form the government at the centre with an absolute majority. However, if we closely analyse the voter percentage projections, there dosent seem to be a major difference between the top two contenders as NDA with 42 percent vote share is in touching distance of the Mahagatbandhan's 43 per cent vote share. So it could also be a very close fight between the NDA and Mahagathbandan candidates on several key constituencies, with the SP-BSP combination clinching most of those seats and turning the tide in their favour.

ABP-C Voter 'Desh Ka Mood' Uttar Pradesh Projections

If we go by the ABP-C Voter poll Survey projections, the SP-BSP Mahagatbandhan is set to win a staggering 51 out of the 80 parliamentary seats on offer in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP-led NDA shall play second fiddle clinching only 25 seats, while the Congress led United Progressive Alliance is out of reconing winning a mere 4 seats.





EASTERN UTTAR PRADESH 

If we have a look at the Eastern Uttar Pradesh region which entails the key constituencies of Varanasi, Azamgarh, Gorakhpur, Ghazipur and Balia, the BJP-led NDA is set to suffer a major dent in its traditional stronghold, winning only six out of the twenty one  Lok Sabha seats. The newly formed Mahagatnadhan is set to make massive inroads winning 15 out of the 21 Lok Sabha seats.


AWADH REGION

In Uttar Pradesh's central Awadh region which is political hotbed of the state, the SP-BSP  Mahagatbandhan  looks in commanding position winning thirteen out of the eighteen Lok Sabha seats. While the Congress seems to be the front runner in retaining its traditional bastions of Amethi and Rae Barelli, the Mahagatbandhan is set to benifit from the class composition in the region, where Yadavs, Ahir and scheduled castes form the majority of the voter base. The Bhartiya Janta Party is projected to be lagging behind with only three seats.


WESTERN UTTAR PRADESH

As per the poll projections, there seems to be a hard fought battle between the NDA and Mahagathbandan in Western Uttar Pradesh. The region which has a strong presence of the Jats, Gujjars and the Upper castes seems to be evenly poised in choosing the most favoured part of their choice.While the Mahagatbandhan is set to be the front runner winning 15 of the 26 seats, BJP shall give them a close fight winning 10 seats.The Congress is virtually out of the race, winning just one seat.

MADHYA UP - BUNDELKHAND 

The Bundelkhand region shall see a pitched battle between the NDA and Mahagatbandhan. While the Samajwadi party is set to retain the Yadav stronghold of Mainpuri and win 8 seats , the BJP looks to have its voter base intact in Prayagraj and clinch 6 of the 15 seats in the region.


The CVoter Tracker is carried out each and every week, 52 waves in a calendar year, in 11 national languages, across all States in UTs in India. All our polls are based on a random probability sample as used in the globally standardized methodology, carried out by trained researchers across all geographic and demographic segments. This survey is based on CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents across all segments. The data is weighted to known census profile.