Will Putin Bounce Back After Wagner Coup Bid? Weakened Russia Not In Strategic Interest Of India

More than two weeks since the coup drama was enacted on June 24 by Yevgeny Prigozhin, an former close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin who heads the Wagner Group, a private militia, the political situation has stabilised but remains fragile in Russia. Putin appeared in public, in the city of Derbent, only after a week of the attempted coup.

Since the coup attempt lacked genuity, Putin could manage to revitalise his political strength. However, though the Russian President has not made any bold public appearance since the failed coup attempt, his telephone calls from Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have perhaps emboldened him. His virtual address to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit and bilateral online interaction with PM Modi later after the summit have further boosted his morale and standing. Interestingly, neither Putin and nor his friend, guide and close confidant President Xi challenged New Delhi’s decision to organise the SCO summit virtually.

There were murmurs in strategic circles that Putin was apprehensive about leaving the Kremlin even for a day after the mutiny drama. A day of failed mutiny against him was enough to teach him a lesson. His absence from the Kremlin would have given an opportunity to orchestrate yet another coup attempt, which might have succeeded. Afterall, during the Prigozhin-led coup attempt, Putin was rumoured to have hidden himself as he remained physically inaccessible.

Russian President Putin had helped his chef friend Yevgeny Prigozhin to set up a private army of almost 50,000, composed mostly of jail inmates who were promised amnesty if they fought the Ukrainian army with full dedication. Prigozhin spent a dozen years in jail in his early youth after he had reportedly committed a robbery, and later opened a restaurant in St. Petersburg after his release from prison. Putin was then the Deputy Mayor of the St. Petersburg administration, and used to visit Prigozhin’s restaurant where the latter used to serve him as his chef. His proximity to a rising leader in the Soviet communist hierarchy helped Prigozhin consolidate his position, which inspired him to set up a private militia in 2014 hiring former soldiers of the Russian army.

Initially, a battalion strength was organised, which was used by Putin to further his political goals both in domestic politics and in various world capitals like Damascus or Washington, where Putin was accused of meddling in the 2016 presidential elections by using his friend’s private militia, the Wagner Group. In fact, Prigozhin utilised the services of Wagner Group to provide security assistance from central African states to west Asian and Latin American authoritarian states, under the eyes of President Putin.

Unheard Of In A Communist Authoritarian Polity

So, was it a revolt or mutiny or military coup against Russian President Vladimir Putin led by his own friend? President Putin described the advance of several thousands of private militia to the capital as a mutiny. Prigozhin was later reported to have appeared in Belarus after a deal with President Aleksandr Lukashenko, but interestingly the Wagner chief is reported to have been found in Moscow, where his fate is unknown. The villains in the June 24 Moscow coup drama were neither enacted by state military soldiers nor launched by a civilian movement inspired by an ideology.

The coup drama was instigated by the head of Russian private militia, who initially was inspired by Russian President Putin to set up the militia group, whose ill-planned unilateral military invasion led to unending tragedy for the millions of Ukraine citizens, whose national army are bravely resisting the Russian army even after 16 months. But the Russian soldiers sought the support of the Wagner private army to assist them in the battlefield against Ukraine soldiers. Putin had used Prigozhin also to further his strategy against his domestic political enemies, and sent the Wagner head from West Asia to Washington to support him as non-state actor.

President Putin now became a victim of his own shenanigans as he invited the Wagner Group to serve his nation by supporting the Russian army and fighting side by side with Russian forces. Tension erupted between the Wagner chief and the Russian army commanders who were accused of neglecting the weapon and food requirements of the group. Prigozhin’s complaints with the Russian defence minister went unheard, and hence he not only launched a tirade against the Russian defence minister and the army chief but also directed his anger against President Putin. The Wagner chief, who felt insulted, resorte to launching a coup attempt. This was unheard of in a communist authoritarian polity.

This failed coup attempt has raised hackles in political corridors of Russia that even the President was not coup-safe and the walls of the Kremlin were not impregnable. The Wagner coup attempt reminded the Russian observers of the days when Boris Yeltsin led a section of the army to bombard the Kremlin in August 1991 but failed to immediately dislodge then President Mikhail Gorbachev.

These attempts, which at least succeeded in creating worldwide fear in the strategic circles, will definitely impact on the morale of President Putin, who will feel politically diminished, weakened and demoralised. He will feel defanged in the new political atmosphere. As far as China is concerned, a weakened Putin would be a better bet to expand its empire in Central Asia and other parts, where Russia is in direct competition with China, whereas a weakened Russia would not be in the long-term strategic interest of India. In view of India's long history of deep strategic dependence on Russia, it would not be easy to decouple from the country.

The author is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst.

[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal.]