Mission Divyastra: How Agni-V MIRV Launch Elevates India's Strategic Might, Albeit With Some Challenges

On March 11, the Indian Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) conducted the inaugural test of the Agni-V MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicle) missile, which is indigenous and developed in India. A Ministry of Defence statement revealed that the test flight, named Mission Divyastra, took place at a missile launch facility on Abdul Kalam Island in Odisha. Various telemetry and radar stations observed the launch, confirming the mission met the planned criteria. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other top officials, such as Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, praised the DRDO scientists for the successful test of the MIRV missile.

India's recent test of MIRV technology has elevated the country to a select group of nations that includes the United States, United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China, who have also successfully developed this advanced capability.

Utilising MIRV technology allows a single ICBM to transport and deploy multiple warheads to separate targets situated hundreds of kilometres away. While the Agni-V missile is officially stated to have a range of 5,000 km, it falls under the category of an Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) rather than an ICBM, which typically have ranges exceeding 5,500 km. The officially stated range of 5,000 km for the Agni-V missile is likely underestimated, as multiple reports suggest that its actual range is closer to 8,000 km, positioning it as a legitimate ICBM.

According to most analysts, the MIRV-equipped Agni-V is expected to have the capacity to transport four to six warheads, though Air Marshal Anil Chopra indicated in an article that the missile could potentially carry 10-12 warheads, as reported by The Diplomat.

As per a media report, Dr Avinash Chander, former DRDO chief and influential figure in the Agni missile programme, mentioned in 2007 that the subsequent version of the Agni missile would be capable of carrying multiple warheads, ranging between four and 12.

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MIRV Mastery: Critical Strategic Advancement

The MIRV technology significantly boosts India's offensive capabilities against adversaries, functioning essentially as launching multiple nuclear warheads at individual targets via a single missile. These independently targeted re-entry vehicles detach at a specific moment and then strike various targets within a 200-500-km radius from their separation point. This enhances one's attack potential exponentially, marking a critical strategic advancement.

The MIRVs of Russia, the United States, and China are designed to carry minimum 10 missiles each, showcasing the level of capability these countries possess.

Missiles equipped with MIRVs have the capability to include 'decoys', increasing the difficulty for an adversary to determine the genuine warheads and diminishing the efficacy of missile defense systems. Decoys are objects, devices, or strategies designed to mislead, distract, or lure someone or something away from their intended target or course of action. They mimic reality to deceive adversaries or prey, commonly used in military tactics, hunting, cybersecurity, and psychological operations to create an advantage or avoid detection.

The development of MIRV (Multiple Independently targetable Re-entry Vehicles) capabilities is viewed as a way to strengthen India's nuclear deterrence. However, specialists contend that achieving a fully operational MIRV system for the Agni-V missile would require numerous further tests.

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MIRV Technology Also Comes With Its Set Of Challenges

Before the test launch, in line with India's obligations under the Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (HCOC), India was required to notify nations like Australia and Indonesia, as well as air and sea traffic in the vicinity, about the forthcoming missile test. HCOC is an international measure aimed at curbing the spread of ballistic missiles that can deliver weapons of mass destruction. It encourages transparency through pre-launch notifications and annual reports on missile policies, without legally binding its participants to specific restrictions.

A news article highlighted that Indian Navy ships, carrying DRDO scientists along with tracking and monitoring equipment, were stationed in the southern Indian Ocean. This area served as the designated impact zone for the missile test.

Since 2012, the Agni-V missile has been subjected to numerous tests. In December 2022, the Indian Strategic Forces Command conducted the first nighttime test of the Agni-V. After this trial, defence officials, who preferred to stay anonymous, mentioned that the DRDO has significantly reduced the weight of the Agni-V missile. This modification aims to extend its range, enabling it to hit targets over 7,000 km away.

The missile system has seen a weight reduction exceeding 20 percent, enabling the nuclear-capable strategic missile to potentially reach distances beyond 7,000 km if desired by the government. It has been reported that substituting steel components with composite materials can further decrease the missile's weight.

Earlier, similar adjustments to reduce weight were applied to the Agni-III missiles, aiming to enhance the range of these strategic missiles.

MIRV technology also comes with its set of challenges. These include the miniaturisation of nuclear warheads, the creation of sophisticated guidance and navigation control systems, and securing the dependability of each re-entry vehicle, which are common concerns for missiles equipped with MIRVs.

India's development efforts are seen as a response to China's deployment of MIRVs on its DF-5 ICBMs and the potential development of MIRV technology by Pakistan for its Ababeel medium-range missile. Additionally, reports suggest that North Korea might also be working on acquiring MIRV capabilities.

The author is a defence, aerospace and political analyst based in Bengaluru.