In an unprecedented turn of events, the assumption of the prime minister’s chair in the United Kingdom by Rishi Sunak, a Conservative MP of Indian ancestry, has raised new expectations of a much needed reset in the India-UK ties. India has always had cordial relations with Britain since Independence from the latter, and as the UK continued to attract Indians, both countries maintained strong people-to-people ties. In spite of adverse Cold War dynamics, India continued and expanded its dependence on British defence hardware, from aircraft carriers to fighter planes. A decade after the end of the Cold War, in the changed geo-political setting, India and Britain decided to give this relationship a special meaning as the two countries signed a Strategic Partnership agreement in September 2004.
After taking oath as the PM of Britain, Rishi Sunak made a meaningful statement: “Excited about what India and UK can achieve as they deepen partnership.” This will be one of the foreign policy challenges for the young British PM to fulfil the goals of the very ambitious India-UK Roadmap 2030, which if implemented in letter and spirit, will prove extremely beneficial for both the countries, both in economic and strategic arenas.
After Britain’s deteriorating relations with China and its exit from the European Union, the UK has been on a search for a big market and strategic partner, and it found that in India. Sunak’s challenge will be how to exploit this market for mutual benefit. The previous UK premiers have already contributed immensely to put India-UK relations on a higher trajectory, which deepened and expanded from trade and economy to diplomacy and security. Sunak is expected to give a new momentum to the centuries-old historical ties in the post-Cold War era.
The new PM has already shown his commitment toward giving a special meaning to this relationship by despatching his Secretary of State James Cleverly to Mumbai and New Delhi. This was the latter’s first significant foreign jaunt, within days of assuming office. The fact that Cleverly chose India as his first foreign destination should indicate the significance PM Sunak attaches to relations with India, not only in bilateral context but also in the international arena.
In fact, the need to deepen relations with India was realised almost two decades ago and successive PMs David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss emphasised on expanding bilateral relations with India. Only in May this year, then PM Boris Johnson, who claimed himself to be an Indophile, inked a joint Roadmap-2030 for establishing more intimate relations between the world’s fifth and sixth largest economies. With a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) proposal recommended in this roadmap, both countries are making tough bargaining on services, immigration and tariff issues.
Roadmap 2030, FTA And The Roadblocks
As both India and the UK see great potential in expanding bilateral economic exchanges, they have set an ambitious target to double this by 2030 from the current level of US$31.4 billion (2022). In 2015, this was US$19.4 billion. This growth in bilateral trade raises confidence in the leadership of both countries to move fast on Roadmap 2030.
Though there are many roadblocks in finalising this deal as some of the provisions like FTA raise domestic concerns, the leadership of both countries have expressed their commitment to finalise this as soon as possible. The previous target of concluding this deal by the Indian national festival of Diwali (end of October) could not be met because of domestic political turmoil in Britain.
Issues like mobility of skilled labour and entrepreneurs challenge the British immigration policy and domestic public opinion whereas problems like reduced tariff on Scotch whiskey continues to haunt the negotiators on both sides. It is to be seen how far Sunak will go to relax British immigration concerns, whose cause, his own Home Secretary Suella Braverman is championing.
In a polity like India and the UK, it is very difficult to reconcile national interests with domestic public opinion and grievances. The priorities before the leadership of both countries would be to protect the interests of their own. However, since achieving the goals of Roadmap 2030 is a top agenda for both, it is expected that some kind of agreement will have to be reached to conclude the FTA.
Looking At A Deeper Strategic Engagement
Expanded trade exchanges will propel deeper strategic engagement between the two economic giants, with Britain’s declared tilt towards the Indo-Pacific. As Britain has helped India strengthen its military might to tackle the combined China-Pakistan threat, the armed forces of two countries are also deeply engaged in joint war games. Naval exercise Konkan is the flagship annual event between the Indian and UK naval forces, which has continued uninterrupted since the beginning of this century. The strategic importance of strong economic and defence ties was emphasised in the UK’s Integrated review of security, defence, development and foreign policy, which said “Britain recognises the vital security role that India plays in the region”. As both nations share common security and economic concerns, deepened partnership between the two will prove beneficial for both.
The Roadmap 2030 commits the two nations to collaborating on tackling cyber space, crime and terrorist threats with the aim of developing a “free, open and secure Indo-pacific region” and counter the threats posed by a rising China. The UK and India will focus on research, innovation and technology as both countries have developed areas of expertise in these sectors, and hope to jointly develop new capabilities within defence and security spheres. Continuing to face border and other challenges from China, India is increasingly recognising the significance of greater security and defence cooperation not only with the US and EU, but with the UK too. As the Roadmap 2030 commits to enhanced defence cooperation, this will be critical not only for the UK’s success in the Indo-pacific region but also for India’s aim to rope in likeminded powers to counter China’s challenge in the Indian and pacific oceans. Roadmap 2030 has already set the stage for Sunak, who will now have to show his mettle to implement this ambitious strategic agenda.
The author is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst.
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