Omicron Scare: Indian Scientists Project Third Covid Wave To Peak In Feb 2022

Going by the Sutra model which tracks the country's Covid-19 trajectory, the daily caseload is expected to rise as Omicron begins to displace Delta as the dominant variant

New Delhi: With omicron cases spreading at an explosive rate worldwide, experts in India have projected that the third wave in India is likely to be witnessed in February, but possibly subsiding within a month. 

M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad, who is also the head of the National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee, said India will have Omicron's third wave but it will be milder than the second wave, according to news agency ANI.

Going by the Sutra model which tracks the country's Covid-19 trajectory, the daily caseload is expected to rise as Omicron begins to displace Delta as the dominant variant.

The Sutra model was developed by M Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad and Maninda Agrawal of IIT Kanpur. Daily Covid-19 caseload in India that is currently around 7,500 infections is expected to increase once the Omicron starts displacing Delta as the dominant variant, said members of the National Covid-19 Supermodel Committee and predicted the third wave in India early year.

"Third wave is likely to arrive early next year in India. It should be milder than the second wave due to a large-scale immunity present in the country now. There will definitely be a third wave. Right now, we are at around 7,500 cases per day which is sure to go up once Omicron starts displacing Delta as the dominant variant," he told ANI.

It's unlikely that India will see more daily cases than the second wave. "India is expected to report one lakh to two lakh cases per day which will be less than the second wave," said Maninda Agrawal. In the “worst case scenario”, the scientists told India Today that daily new cases may be in the range of 1.5 to 1.8 lakhs in February, and that may happen if the new Omicron variant completely evades immunities acquired either naturally or through vaccination.

Sharing details on the record surge in Covid-19 infections, Maninda Agrawal said that the UK has high vaccine penetration (but mostly with mRNA vaccines), but low sero-prevalence.

The panel assumes that community transmission of Omicron has been already started. "Just continue to comply with COVID appropriate behaviour. Prevention is better than cure," said Vidyasagar. According to Vidyasagar, in the worst scenario, India will not have more than two lakh cases per day in case the third wave grips the country.

Meanwhile experts believe that the third wave even if less severe than the previous one is inevitable.

The Rt value or the effective reproduction value of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has gone up in a few states including Maharashtra. An Rt value of 1 means one patient can spread the disease to one other person.

In a tweet, epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu on Tuesday said states with an increase in Rt values on December 19 as compared to December 13 are Bihar, MP, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Tripura, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Odisha, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, West Bengal, Manipur and Nagaland. India’s effective Rt is 0.89 as on December 19, he added.

In the week ending November 2, the Rt value in Maharashtra was 0.7 and kept steadily increasing — 0.82 (November 14), 0.96 (November 22) — before falling — 0.92 (November 29) and 0.85 (December 6). In the last two weeks, the Rt value in the state has again started rising: 1.08 (December 19).

The rising weekly caseload and Rt value are, as per doctors, an indicator of how the Covid graph will turn out in the next month.