Banning Cigarette Sales To People Born Between 2006 And 2010 Could Prevent 1.2 Mn Lung Cancer Deaths: Study In Lancet

Study published in The Lancet Public Health says while lung cancer could claim 2.9 mn deaths worldwide by 2095, banning tobacco sales to those born between 2006 & 2010 could prevent 40.2% such deaths.

Banning tobacco sales to individuals born between 2006 and 2010 could prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths worldwide by 2095, a global modelling study suggests. The analysis evaluates the potential impact of creating a tobacco-free generation by eliminating access to tobacco for younger people. Being the leading cause of preventable death across the world, smoking is considered the biggest risk factor for lung cancer. While lung cancer claims 1.8 million lives every year, over two-thirds of them are estimated to have caused by smoking. 

The study published in The Lancet Public Health, and led by researchers from the University of Santiago de Compostela and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), finds that the most significant benefits of such a policy would be seen in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 65.1% of the prevented deaths would occur. Additionally, the study estimates that 61.1% of lung cancer deaths in high-income countries could be avoided if smoking among this generation were eliminated.

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Estimated 2.9 Mn Could Die From Lung Cancer In 185 Countries By 2095

The findings suggest that banning tobacco sales for this generation could prevent 45.8% of future lung cancer deaths among men and 30.9% among women. In regions like Central and Eastern Europe, the impact could be even more significant, with up to 74.3% of male lung cancer deaths averted.

According to the study, Asian regions, which include India, could have the highest number of lung-cancer deaths in both men and women, at 18,63,640 (63·1%) of the total number globally. Over 2.35 lakh deaths (1,53,600 male and 81,500 female) are expected in India, and a tobacco ban for the given age group could prevent 4,200 deaths (3,100 male and 1,100 female) in all, the analysis finds.    

"Lung cancer is a major killer worldwide, and a staggering two-thirds of deaths are linked to one preventable risk factor — tobacco smoking," said lead author Dr. Julia Rey Brandariz, adding that the modelling study highlights "how much there is to gain for governments considering the implementation of ambitious plans towards creating a tobacco-free generation". 

Researchers predicted future lung cancer death rates using historical data from 82 countries listed in the WHO Mortality Database. These predictions were then combined with information from GLOBOCAN 2022, a global cancer statistics platform maintained by the IARC, to estimate lung cancer rates for individuals born between 2006 and 2010 across 185 countries. The number of potentially preventable smoking-related lung cancer deaths was calculated based on previous data on lung cancer deaths among non-smokers. 

The analysis indicates an estimated 2.9 million lung cancer deaths in 185 countries by 2095, and 1.2 million of them (40.2%) could be prevented if smoking was eliminated among people in the given birth cohort. 

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'Eliminating Smoking Especially Important In Low- And Middle-Income Countries'

While high-income countries have seen a decline in smoking rates in recent years, smoking remains prevalent in many LMICs, where populations are younger and more vulnerable to the effects of tobacco use. Dr. Isabelle Soerjomataram of IARC emphasised that these nations stand to benefit the most from a tobacco sales ban, as smoking remains common and public health efforts to reduce tobacco consumption have often lagged behind those of wealthier countries.

"While we must redouble our efforts to eliminate smoking in all parts of the world, this is especially important in low- and middle-income countries,” she said.

Though the study presents promising data, the authors acknowledge certain limitations, including potential challenges with implementation, such as the rise of black-market sales or poor compliance. Nevertheless, the findings underscore the significant public health benefits that could be achieved through ambitious tobacco control policies, particularly in countries with younger populations. The predictions also did not take into account the use of e-cigarettes.

This is the first large-scale study to evaluate the effect of banning tobacco sales on lung cancer deaths in future generations. No country currently enforces such a ban. New Zealand had tried to ban tobacco sale to anyone born in or after 2009, but the legislation had to be repealed.