The Haryana assembly poll results have taken an interesting turn on Tuesday. In the morning as per early trends, Congress was seen as the clear winner, but now they have lost their ground. The latest trends show that BJP has gained more than enough to form a government.
As of 10:15 am, BJP is leading in 51 assembly seats in Haryana, while Congress is leading in 34 seats. INLD is ahead in two seats, and others are leading in three seats. Since 46 assembly seats are needed to form a government, the BJP has crossed the mark, reversing the early trend in favour of Congress.
This turn of events is contrary to the morning trends in Haryana and the exit poll predictions conducted by various agencies. However, as the vote count progresses, the BJP seems to be in control, defying the exit poll predictions
According to the major pollsters who conducted the exit polls, Congress was headed for absolute majority.
| Name | BJP | Congress | INLD | JJP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dhruv Research | 27 | 57+ | - | 0 | 6 |
| CVoter | 20-28 | 50-58 | - | 0-2 | 10-14 |
| Matrize | 18-24 | 55-62 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 2-8 |
| People's Pulse | 26 (+/-7) | 55 (+/-7) | 2-3 | - | 4-6 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 15-29 | 44-54 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 6-9 |
| News24-Chanakya | 18-24 | 55-62 | - | - | 2-5 |
| Times Now | 22-32 | 50-64 | - | - | 2-8 |
| JIST-TIF Research | 29-37 | 43-53 | 0-2 | 0 | 4-6 |
2024 Lok Sabha Elections: Exit Polls Missed The Mark
Most of the pollsters claim that the way of predicting seats and vote share is based on scientific data gathering principles, however, there have been more than often instances where the Exit Poll predictions have gone wrong with the most recent being that of Lok Sabha election results 2024.
Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, at least 12 exit polls had forecast a sweeping victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with some projecting the alliance crossing the 400-seat mark. However, the actual results turned out to be quite different. The NDA secured 293 seats, significantly lower than predicted. The BJP, in particular, fell short of a simple majority, winning only 240 seats—a drop of 63 seats from the 303 it held in 2019. In contrast, the Congress-led INDIA bloc won 235 seats, further highlighting the inaccuracy of the exit polls.