The central Awadh region of UP, with crucial seats like Sitapur, Unnao, Lucknow, Rae Bareli and Amethi, is the political hotbed of the state. As per the survey, a fiercely close fight can be seen in the region with both SP-BSP Mahagathbandhan and BJP standing neck-to-neck. The survey predicts 11 seats for NDA whereas the Mahagathbandhan stands close with winning 10 seats here. Congress seems to be the front runner in retaining its traditional bastions of Amethi and Rae Barelli.
The ABP-Nielson survey shows a fierce fight between NDA and Mahagathbandhan on all major Lok Sabha seats in the Awadh region. The survey shows Mahagathbandhan advancing in seats such as Kheri, Sitapur, Hardoi (SC), Misrikh (SC), Faizabad and Mohanlalganj (SC), etc. whereas NDA bagging seats including Dhaurahra, Unnao, Lucknow, Kannauj and Farrukhabad among others.
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The survey, however, notes that there is a very small difference in vote percentage between the two fronts in all above-mentioned Lok Sabha seats. On seats such as Kheri, Unnao, Sultanpur, Ambedkar Nagar, Bahraich (SC) and Gonda, there is a minimal difference in vote percentage – as low as 1-2 per cent.
The Mahagatbandhan is set to benefit from the class composition in the region, where Yadavs, Ahir and scheduled castes form the majority of the voter base. While on the other hand, BJP aims at retaining the government with Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself going all out to lure voters in the state.