Voter turnout in Maharashtra during the recent assembly elections was the highest ever in 30 years. Over 65.1% of the eligible voters turned out to cast their ballots, as per the figures at 11:45 PM on Wednesday. This marks a significant increase compared to previous elections, including the 61.39% recorded during this year's Lok Sabha polls and the 61.4% from the 2019 assembly elections. Notably, this is the highest turnout since 1995, when it reached 71.69%.
The high-octane campaigning and reservation issues, combined with the allegations of corruption, in all likelihood, boosted the voter turnout. Moreover, this is the first time a divided Shiv Sena and a divided NCP are going to assembly polls opposing one another.
The increase in Maharashtra's voter turnout is largely attributed to the intense campaigning by both the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which could play a crucial role in this competitive election. In the Lok Sabha elections, the Mahayuti coalition — comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena, and NCP — secured 42.71% of the votes, while the MVA, which includes Congress, Shiv Sena UBT, and NCP SP, garnered 43.91%.
The rise in voter turnout by at least 3.5% could be pivotal in determining election outcomes. The number of registered voters has increased by 9.5%, now totalling approximately 9.69 crores compared to 8.85 crores in 2019.
Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis expressed confidence that increased voter turnout favours the ruling Mahayuti coalition, stating that historically, higher participation has benefitted the BJP. On the other hand, state Congress chief Nana Patole claimed that enthusiasm among voters indicates a strong likelihood of MVA victory. He said that citizens wanted to elect a government that focused on their welfare.
Provisional data from the Election Commission of India (ECI) indicates that rural areas saw higher voter engagement compared to urban centres. Kolhapur district recorded the highest turnout at 76.25%, while Mumbai city had the lowest at 52.07%. The Karvir constituency in Kolhapur achieved an impressive voting rate of 84.79%, showcasing a competitive race between Congress candidate Rahul Patil and Shinde Sena’s Chandradip Narke.
In contrast, Colaba in South Mumbai experienced a mere 44.49% turnout, with BJP's Rahul Narvekar contesting against Congress's Hira Dewasi. The Baramati constituency, featuring Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar against his nephew Yugendra Pawar from NCP (SP), saw a turnout of 71.03%, surpassing the previous election's figure of 68.82%. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's Kopri-Pachpakhadi reported a provisional turnout of 59.85%, while Fadnavis's Nagpur South West seat had a participation rate of 54.49%.
Exit Polls Results
The exit poll results released after voting concluded in Maharashtra indicated an advantage for the ruling Mahayuti alliance over the MVA. The winning alliance would need a minimum of 145 seats in the 288-member assembly to form a government.
Matrize gave a healthy edge to the Mahayuti, predicting 150-170 seats, while predicting 110-130 seats for the MVA. Chanakya Strategies, too, leaned in favour of the Mahayuti with 152-160 seats and 130-138 seats for the MVA. People's Pulse predicted a thumping win for the ruling alliance with 175-195 seats. It predicted just 85-112 seats for the MVA.
Pradeep Gupta from Axis My India announced plans to release further exit poll findings for Maharashtra on November 21. CVoter could also release its analysis on Thursday.
Historically, exit polls have struggled to be even close to calling the results correctly let alone be precise. Discrepancies were noted during both the Lok Sabha elections and more recently, in the Haryana assembly elections.