NEW DELHI: Karnataka is poised to head for a hung assembly, predicted a Pre-Poll Survey conducted by JAIN-A Deemed to be University, Bengaluru and Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi.

Karnataka will hold elections for its 224-seat assembly on May 12 and the result will be announced three days later. The Congress in 2013 had won a massive 113 seats while B JP and JDS had won 50 and 40 seats respectively.



According to the survey, BJP is set to win seats ranging between 89-95 while the incumbent Congress party is likely to win anywhere between 85-91 seats. This indicates the opposition BJP holds the edge in the southern state. Deve Gowda led JDS is projected to win 32-38 seats and may emerge as the kingmaker in the tightly contested elections. Other parties including the independents may gather seats ranging between 6-12.

When enquired about the voting intention, 37% have gone in favour of Congress while 35% have tilted towards the BJP. JDS has got 20%.



Preferential CM

Siddaramaiah has attracted 30% votes of respondents who believe should continue as the next chief minister if Congress comes to power. Not far behind is BS Yeddyurappa who is preferred by 25% of the total respondents. HD Kumaraswamy is at a distant third with 20% votes.

27% are satisfied with Siddaramaiah’s performance while Modi government’s performance at the Centre is liked by 25%.



According to the survey, 51% of the respondents have a strong desire for changing the State government despite a positive assessment of its performance. This statistic is worrisome for the Congress which is seeking a second term in the state.

More findings of the survey

  • Only strong satisfaction with Cong government’s performance is leading to a strong pro-incumbency sentiment, those moderately satisfied are more likely to want a change in government

  • The anti-incumbency vote is seen getting divided between BJP and JDS.

  • Another key finding - Narendra Modi liked more than Rahul Gandhi by respondents.

  • Candidate consideration to be most important voting issue followed by development.

  • The survey has found that the Lingayat issue is not determining Lingayat vote choice; those favoring separate religion status are favoring BJP even more. However, 3 in every 5 Lingayats support the idea of getting a separate religion status for their community.

  • Nearly 3 in every 5 support idea of having a separate official flag of Karnataka