Himachal Pradesh was Congress’ election to lose, and it managed to just scrape through. Contesting without a decisive leadership, the party had many reasons to fail. And there is a message in the loss many of its veterans faced in the election.
But before going into the takeaways from the Congress performance, first a dissection of why the ruling BJP lost the polls.
The Bharatiya Janata Party government led by Jairam Thakur faced a palpable anti-incumbency on the ground. The outgoing chief minister could never really recover from the bypoll defeats last year — both in the assembly and Lok Sabha seats.
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The state electorate used to strong and decisive leadership of Virbhadra Singh and Prem Kumar Dhumal, Thakur could never really strike a chord.
Inflation remained a huge talking point throughout the election campaign in the hill state. Apple growers complained of the rise in production costs. The state government did introduce some welfare schemes during the last five years — especially in the health sector — but that was not enough to pull through the BJP juggernaut this time around.
Himanchal is also BJP president JP Nadda’s home state, and big-ticket development projects like setting up of IIT in Mandi, IIM in Solan, and AIIMS in Bilaspur had a limited impact. Key ministers in CM Jairam Thakur’s cabinet were rejected by the electorate. And infighting and rebel candidates in a dozen seats made things difficult in the last leg.
The saving grace for the chief minister was that he could manage to win 9 out of 10 seats for his party in his home district Mandi.
As for the Congress, the party took a considered decision to maintain a low pitch throughout the campaign. Shepherded by Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, Congress raked up local issues and never for once targeted Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Its poll promises were specific underscoring quantifiable benefits to the electorate like implementing the old pension scheme. These are the issues that directly affect government servants who constitute the biggest vote bank in the state.
In many ways, the Himachal Pradesh campaign was also a test case for the Congress and this template could act as a reference framework in crafting its future electoral strategies — especially in the context of drafting an alternative position on BJP’s call on ‘politics of revadi’.
Its reverberations could well be felt in Congress campaigns in four poll-bound states next year where the party is in direct contest with the BJP — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Karnataka. Ostensibly the reason why Home Minister Amit Shah sought to project BJP’s Gujarat victory as a rejection of ‘revadi’ culture.
Why This Was Congress' Election To Lose
So, coming back to why the Congress managed to scrape through despite the strong tailwinds.
For the first time in four decades, the party lacked the decisive and strong leadership of former chief minister Virbhadra Singh who passed away due to post-Covid complications last year.
The Congress entered the contest with more than half a dozen CM candidates.
The party’s poor performance in the assembly segments in Mandi Lok Sabha seat, now represented by Virbhadra Singh’s wife Pratibha Singh, is a setback to the family that has controlled the reins of power in the state for decades now. Singh’s son Vikramaditya has won his seat and remains in contention.
Some close aides of the former CM have also lost, including Bumber Thakur from Bilaspur. Similarly, local strongman from the opposite camp Lal Singh from Sri Nainadeviji has lost. The Congress lost both these seats by a margin of less than a thousand votes.
Another CM candidate and six-time MLA Asha Kumari faced a massive drubbing in Dalhousie. Former minister and eight-time MLA Kaul Singh Thakur too has lost the election.
The electoral setback for the veterans paves the way for former state president Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu and journalist-turned-politician Mukesh Agnihotri to enter the contest for the top post.