Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot was in charge of the Congress’ campaign in the 2027 assembly polls in Gujarat. Under Gehlot, the party registered its best-ever performance in the state assembly polls in 27 years, bagging more than 41 percent of the popular vote in a bipolar contest. The biggest setback for the Congress in the 2017 polls came in south Gujarat — including Surat city, which was the epicentre of the Patel reservation agitation. The party was hoping to do well here. In the end, the BJP managed to retain 26 out of 35 seats in southern districts bordering Maharashtra and survived by the skin of its teeth.
Five years since, the Congress seems to have lost steam and leadership after multiple and intermittent defections.
The Congress’ 2017 strategy helmed by Gehlot lay in its success to mobilise backward, Adiwasi, Muslim and Dalit voters. The Patidar reservation movement sought to undercut the BJP in one constituency where the ruling party is well entrenched. It was audacious and rearing to go, challenging Prime Minister Modi’s development claims. 'Vikas gando thayo che' or 'Development has gone mad' — a social media meme produced by a college student became an instant hit.
Five years later, the Congress’s social coalition lay in tatters. PAAS leader Hardik Patel is contesting on the BJP symbol. Alpesh Thakor, the OBC face of the Congress, has defected to the BJP and is a candidate from Gandhinagar-South.
Activist-turned-politician and party’s young Dalit face Jignesh Mewani has been caught in a four-cornered contest from Vadgam, a seat he won as an independent by a margin of more than 19,000 voters in 2017. Both the AAP and the AIMIM have fielded their candidates against Mewani.
This time around, Congress elections in Gujarat were managed by Ashok Gehlot’s protégé and former Rajasthan Minister Raghu Sharma. The party lacked a coherent campaign. It made 11 promises in its manifesto, and relied on what its leaders called a ‘door to door campaign’. The Congress accused the AAP and the AIMIM of helping the BJP by splitting opposition votes.
But was that enough to challenge the might of the BJP that has now been ruling the state for more than three decades?
In the absence of a cohesive strategy, the Congress contested but displayed neither intent, ability, nor effort to be in contention for power. In electoral politics, where the winner takes all, there is no space for all-ran.
It was precisely this opening that AAP was looking for to find its feet in state politics.
Gujarat Contest: From Bipolar To Three-Corner, Courtesy AAP
Having tested waters in the urban body elections in Surat and Gandhinagar, where it has replaced Congress as the main opposition, Kejriwal fielded candidates in all the 182 seats.
Its focus area remained urban and semi-urban centres. But in the last leg of the campaign, the party pulled all stops to make inroads in the rural belt where the Congress has been traditionally very strong — especially Saurashtra, south and central Gujarat. The contest in north Gujarat was by and large bipolar.
Since the BJP emerged as the dominant force in state politics in 1989, Gujarat has been in a bipolar contest. The emergence of AAP as a third player disrupts the status quo.
AAP’s performance in Gujarat will be watched more in terms of its vote share than the number of seats it can pull off. It is contesting this election to lay the claim for being the main challenger to the BJP in state politics. A vote share of 15 percent or more for AAP will further dent Congress’ prospects of a comeback in 2024.
Gujarat is the third state where AAP seems to have made a determined bid to outdo Congress and emerge as an alternative to the BJP or its allies.
In Delhi, as the MCD results show, Congress’ decimation is almost complete. In Punjab, the grand old party remains the main opposition, but the shift in subaltern votes to the AAP is palpable.
A redux in Gujarat will diminish Congress’ claim to lead the anti-BJP front at the Centre.
The author is an independent journalist who writes on politics and policy.
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