New Delhi: The JD-S had won 38 seats along with its ally BSP, while the Congress won 78 seats, the BJP emerged as the single-largest party winning 104 seats in the May 12 election to the Karnataka state assembly which has a total strength of 224. Elections to 2 seats were deferred. In all, voting took place for 222 seats.
Of these 222 seats JD-S has won 38 seats. Its leader H D Kumaraswamy contested from two seats and won from both. Under the rules, he has to vacate one seat and due to this the total number in the House will go down from 222 to 221.
The magic half-way figure for a simple majority then will be 111 and not 112 in a House of 221 members. The BJP has 104 seats. However, the story does not end here. If 10 MLAs of the JD-S and Congress remain absent or abstain from voting during floor test, then the simple majority figure which BJP would require in that scenario would be 106 seats out of 211 members. BJP already has 104!
If BJP manages to get the support of two independent MLAs then it will meet the magic figure of 106 and can prove its majority and easily form the government.
This calculation has been made on the presumption that 10 non-BJP MLAs would remain absent or abstain from voting. Besides, to conduct the work in the assembly, a temporary speaker known as the pro tem speaker is appointed till a permanent speaker is chosen. By convention, the senior most member of the House is chosen as the pro tem speaker. It is believed that in the current House, the senior most member happens to be R V Deshpande of the Congress party. The pro tem speaker administers the oath of office to the newly-elected MLAs, oversees the election of Speaker and in the case of a tie even casts the deciding vote. But Governor Vajubhai Vala has chosen BJP MLA KG Bopaiah as the pro tem speaker. This will be a curious situation to watch.