The 'Magic Figure' Of 50 And Lok Sabha Exit Polls — How The Numbers Stacked In Last 3 Surveys

Lok Sabha Exit Polls: Historically, the winning party in exit polls has gained around 50 more seats in actual results than the average exit poll prediction.

The seventh phase of voting for the Lok Sabha elections 2024 will end by 6:30 pm on June 1. After that, the most-awaited exit polls data will be released on TV channels across the country. The wins and losses of parties can be estimated by these exit polls.

If we look at the exit polls from 2009 to 2019, it is clear that the winning party or alliance has got approximately 50 more seats in the actual result than the average it scored in the exit polls.

2009 Exit Polls

In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, two major alliances were in the fray. United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and National Democratic Alliance (NDA). UPA included the parties that were with the Congress. NDA included those parties which were contesting the elections in alliance with BJP.

In the exit polls released for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, UPA was looking at an average of 195 seats, whereas NDA was predicted to win around 185 seats. When the election results came out, the winning coalition UPA got 262 seats and NDA got 158 ​​seats. If we look at the difference in these, there was a difference of about 54 seats between the exit poll numbers and the actual numbers of the winning coalition i.e. the UPA.

That year, Star-Nielsen had given 199 seats to UPA and 196 to the NDA. CNN IBN-Dainik Bhaskar had given 195 seats to UPA, and 175 to the NDA. India Today-C Voter had given 195 seats to UPA, whereas NDA got 189 seats. Headlines Today, in its exit poll, had given 191 seats to the UPA and 180 seats to the NDA. When the average of all these figures was calculated, UPA got 195 seats in the exit poll and NDA got 185 seats. In the actual results, UPA got 262 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, whereas NDA got 158 ​​seats.

2014 Exit Polls

In 2014, the figures changed as compared to 2009. The 2014 exit poll figures surprised political enthusiasts that year. News 24 Chanakya gave a maximum of 340 seats to the NDA, whereas Congress was given only 70 seats. India Today-CVoter, CNN IBN-CSDS, and NDTV-Hansa Research predicted a maximum of 289, 280, and 279 seats for the NDA in their respective exit polls.

ABP News-Nielsen gave 274 seats to the NDA, India Today-Cicero gave 272 seats, and Times Now-ORG gave 249 seats to the NDA in the exit polls. When the average of all these figures was calculated, NDA got 283 seats in the exit polls, but when the actual result came, NDA got 336 seats. This time also, the winning alliance got 53 more seats in the actual result than the average numbers received in the exit polls.

2019 Exit Polls

In the exit poll of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, India Today-My Axis gave a maximum of 352 seats to the winning alliance NDA. News24-Today's Chanakya gave 350 seats to the NDA, News18-IPSOS gave 336 seats, VDP Associates gave 333 seats, Sudarshan News predicted 313 seats, Times Now-VMR predicted 306 seats, Suvarna News predicted 305 seats, India Tv-CNX predicted 300 seats, India News-Polstrat gave 287 seats, CVoter gave 287 seats, News Nation gave 286 seats, ABP-CSDS gave 277 seats and NewsX-Neta gave 242 seats to the NDA.

When the average of all these was calculated, the NDA got an average of 306 seats in the exit polls. When the actual results came, the NDA got a total of 353 seats. This time there was a difference of 47 seats between the exit polls and the actual figures. After studying the Lok Sabha results and exit poll data of these three elections, we can say that the actual results come with a lead of about 50 seats over the average numbers that the winning alliance gets in the exit polls.