With curtains finally drawing over the intense campaigning for the electoral exercise in one of the biggest democracies of the world, the focus now shifts on numbers and predictions in the run-up to the results. On June 1, votes for the seventh and the final phase of the Lok Sabha elections will be polled which will soon be followed by the exit polls, putting out the prediction numbers.
Although, the final result will be declared by the Election Commission of India on June 4.
Exit poll is an attempt to understand which party or candidate is going to win an election guaging the mood of the voters based on some questions asked to them. Exit polls take place on the last day of the election after the voting is concluded and the voters come out of the polling stations. Through the exercise of exit polls, parties and political analysts try to understand electoral trends while media organisation make an attempt at predicting the results.
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What Are Exit Polls
An exit poll is a post-poll survey where voters who have cast their votes in an election are asked about which political party they are supporting. The exit poll, which differs from an opinion poll, seeks to provide an insight into which party has the advantage and the seats a party could possibly win before the mandate is known.
How Are Exit Polls Conducted
Collecting samples is the most common way of conducting an exit poll. The samples contain questions such as what citizens feel about a particular party or the work done by it in the past. The participants are also asked about their choice of voting for a particular party or candidate and the reason behind it.
Guidelines By Election Commission Of India On Exit Polls
The broadcast of exit polls is governed by several rules such as Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951. The post-poll survey is not supposed to be aired after the voting begins and till the last phase concludes.
As per the Representation of the People Act, 1951, no person is allowed to conduct any exit poll and publish or publicise the results through print and electronic media or in any other manner while voting is undergoing.
Difference Between Pre-Poll And Post Poll Surveys
Pre-poll surveys, generally known as opinion polls, generally guage the mood of the voters and the voting behaviour before the polls begin. The post-poll surveys, which include exit polls, are conducted among participants who have already cast their votes.
When did exit polls start?
The first exit poll was conducted in India by the Indian Institute of Public Opinion in 1957, during the second Lok Sabha elections. However it was in the 1980s that the exit polls started to capture public attention with the rise of satellite television in the country.