The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) awaits with bated breath to see if the exit poll predictions for the Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya elections were right or if the Opposition managed to ebb the saffron juggernaut in the Northeast as the counting of votes takes place tomorrow.
Among the three states where the votes will be counted on Thursday, Tripura will be the one more in focus, primarily because traditional rivals, the Congress and the Left Front, joined hands for the first time in the state's history in a bid to defeat the BJP.
Another reason is that the Pradyot Debbarma-led debutant, Tipra Motha Party, has emerged as an X-factor in the Tripura elections if the exit polls are anything to go by. The sway of its founder, a scion of the erstwhile Tripura kingdom's royalty, among a big section of the tribal population has seemingly disrupted conventional calculations. This is noteworthy as the BJP and its ally, the Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT), had done well in the tribal region in 2018.
The BJP had won 36 constituencies and the IPFT bagged eight seats last time, giving them the numbers to form the government. However, with the IPFT in decline, following the death of its founder NC Debbarma, the burden of securing a majority in the 60-member Tripura Assembly rests largely on the shoulders of the BJP, while its two main rivals put up a united show.
The BJP's phenomenal rise to power in the state after having failed to win a single seat in 2013 to secure a majority on its own five years later by decimating the Left Front. A loss at this point will be seen as a major setback for the saffron despite Tripura's relatively marginal influence on national politics.
"Counting of votes will take place at 21 counting centres. EC has observed 60 election observers. All counting staff have been trained. Security arrangements and CCTV coverage have been arranged outside & inside counting centres," Kiran Gitte, Chief Electoral Officer of Tripura, was quoted as saying by news agency ANI.
In Meghalaya, the BJP has fought on all 60 seats for the first time and constantly targeted National People's Party leader and Chief Minister Conrad Sangma for running the "most corrupt" state government in the country. The BJP was a partner in the state government but broke ties ahead of the polls. The party hopes to boost its strength from two in the assembly to emerge as a more powerful player if the verdict throws up a hung assembly like the last time.
However, with the exit polls predicting a close contest and Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma hosting a late-night meeting with his Meghalaya counterpart Sangma, speculation of a post-poll alliance is rife.
In Nagaland, things are quite different. It is the only state in the country without an Opposition in the assembly. All parties with a presence in the 60-member assembly backed the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party-led government, the BJP is again fighting the polls in alliance with the NDPP.
The BJP now looks forward to forming governments with an absolute majority in all three northeastern states, while the Congress is hoping that its pre-poll promises would just work.
The Congress ran an intensive campaign, with Rahul Gandhi holding a rally in Meghalaya, in its bid to claw back its lost influence in the states it once dominated. An interesting sideshow to these elections is the strong push by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress to make an impact in the polls to project itself as a stronger challenger to the BJP than the Congress, more so as the countdown to the next Lok Sabha polls in 2024 begins.
(With inputs from PTI.)