New Delhi: With power shuffling between the BJP and the Congress every five years in Uttarakhand, all eyes are on the battle for the hill state which is set to go to assembly elections in a single phase on February 14.
BJP is contesting the polls under the leadership of young chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami, and the Congress is pinning its hopes on the veteran leader and former chief minister Harish Rawat, the party’s chief election strategist.
Though the Aam Aadmi Party has also entered the battlefield this election, the main question is will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) be able to buck the trend and return to power for a second consecutive term? While we have to wait for the result day March 10 to get a transparent result, ABP News along with CVoter conducted a survey to understand the inclination of voters.
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Uttarakhand Assembly Election 2022: Vote Share & Projected Range Of Seats By ABP CVoter Opinion Poll
According to the ABP News CVoter Opinion Poll, a neck-and-neck competition is likely to be witnessed between the BJP and the Congress. The ruling Bharatiya Janta Party is likely to have 31 to 37 seats in a 70 member state assembly while the Congress is also expected to gain 31 to 36 seats.
It is tough to determine which party is likely to get a clear majority by crossing a 35 seat -mark. Also, the presence of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the fray as the other challenger also makes the poll scene different this time for both Congress and the BJP. The Arvind Kejriwal-led party is likely to bag 2-4 seats.
Though most seats are likely to see straight contests between the BJP and the Congress, the AAP may become the kingmaker if no party crosses the magic number.
If we see the vote share, according to the CVoter survey, the BJP is likely to see a decline with the party getting 38.6% as compared to 46.5% in 2017 assembly polls when the party came to power. Meanwhile, the Congress can be seen gaining momentum this election and may gain a 37.2% vote share, which is less than the BJP but more than its vote share during the 2017 elections.
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The Uttarakhand Assembly has 70 seats in all, and 36 is the majority mark. These 70 Uttarakhand constituencies are spread over three regions – Garhwal (22 constituencies), Maidan/Plains/Tarai (28), and Kumaon (20).
The ABP-CVoter survey also revealed the region-wise projects and Congress is likely to gain 11-7 seats in the Kumaon region while the saffron party may just bag 5-9 seats in the region.
The voters of the Garhwal region appear to be impressed by the work and poll promises of the ruling party as BJP is likely to bag 16-20 seats in the region while Congress may mop 9-15 seats.
In the Tarai region, a close contest is being witnessed between both the parties as the predicted seat range for BJP is 7-11 while the Congress can get 7-13 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party appears to have some impact in this region as the party may get 1-3 seats.
In the 2017 Uttarakhand elections, the BJP had ousted the Congress from power, bagging 57 seats – the highest any party managed since the state’s formation in 2001. The Congress was left with 11 seats.
The tenure of the current Uttarakhand Assembly ends on March 23, 2022.
DISCLAIMER: The present opinion poll/survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 89536+ across 5 states (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa, and Manipur) & the survey was carried out during the period 12th December 2021 to 8th January 2022. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.