ABP-CVoter Third Opinion Poll Predicts BJP Win in 4 States, Hung Assembly Likely In Punjab With AAP In Lead

With only a few months left for elections to the 5 states, ABP News along with CVoter conducted the monthly survey to understand the mood of voters.

New Delhi: The third opinion poll by ABP News-CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) predicts closely fought victories for the BJP in four states — Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Goa and Uttarakhand — in the 2022 assembly elections. The fifth state going to polls early next year is Punjab, which appears to be heading towards a hung assembly with no party being able to cross the majority mark, according to the December survey.

While Punjab has an India National Congress (INC) government in power, the other four states are being ruled by the BJP. AAP continues to be in the driver's seat in Punjab, with INC close behind, the survey conducted in the first week of December shows.

According to the ABP News-CVoter third opinion poll in UP, Yogi Adityanath and Akhilesh Yadav remain the two leading candidates for the CM post. 

In Punjab, the repeal of three contentious agriculture laws and the suspension of farmers’ protests could change some dynamics. The December tracker puts AAP in the lead, maintaining its position with 50-56 seats now. The incumbent INC is second with 39-45 seats.

The ABP News-CVoter third opinion poll in Uttarakhand shows BJP is consistently maintaining its lead position, and is set to retain power. The INC is a close second, and AAP a distant third. In terms of vote share, BJP is leading with 39.8% votes, followed by INC with 35.7% and AAP with 12.6% vote share.

In Goa too, BJP continues to remain the most popular party, winning 17-21 seats. AAP and INC are in a tight battle to become the second largest party, with the former appearing to win 5-9 seats and INC 4-8 seats. Other regional parties and the new entrants are also going to be a major factor, winning 6-10 seats. 

According to the ABP News-CVoter third opinion poll in Manipur, BJP is set to have a closely fought contest with INC but will emerge victorious. The party is projected to win 29-33 seats against INC’s 23-27.

BJP To Retain Power In UP With Reduced Margin

In Uttar Pradesh, considered a bellwether state ahead of the Lok Sabha election, BJP is projected to win 212-224 of the 403 seats with a 40.4 per cent vote share. In the previous polls, the BJP came to power by winning 325 seats, garnering a 41.4 per cent vote share.

Yogi Adityanath would become the first chief minister of the state to serve two consecutive terms if the projections of the December survey turn out to be true.

The Samajwadi Party (SP), which has formed an alliance with Jayant Chaudhary's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RLD), will triple its seat tally and finish second with 151-163 seats, as per the survey. 

The BSP, under supremo Mayawati, will only bag anywhere between 12 and 24 seats. The Congress, whose campaign is being spearheaded by Priyanka Gandhi with a focus on wooing women voters, could end up with two to 10 seats, the survey shows. In 2017, it won seven seats. 

AAP Ka Punjab in 2022?

Punjab is likely to witness a hung Assembly, with AAP emerging as the single largest party in the state, as per the ABP-CVoter survey.

This will be the first election that will present a four-cornered fight in Punjab. The state has mostly seen a bipolar contest, with the Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine alternating power almost every five years. However, this time SAD and BJP are not in alliance.

As per the survey, AAP is expected to bag 50-56 seats, with Congress finishing second with anywhere between 39 and 45 seats. A party needs to win at least 59 seats in the 117-seat Punjab assembly to form the government.

Interestingly, maximum respondents (23.7 per cent) have chosen AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal as their preferred chief ministerial candidate.

BJP, which is likely to team up with Captain Amarinder Singh's Punjab Lok Congress, will bag 0-3 seats, the survey predicted.

Close Contest Between BJP, Congress In Uttarakhand

The Himalayan state of Uttarakhand, which has seen BJP changing three chief ministers in four months, is heading towards a neck-and-neck fight between the ruling party and Congress.

According to the survey, the BJP may bag 33-39 seats in the 70-member assembly while the Congress is expected to win 29-35 seats. In terms of vote share, BJP is expected to garner 39.8 per cent of the votes, with the Congress close behind at 35.7 per cent.

Former Uttarakhand chief minister Harish Rawat has been chosen by more than 33 per cent of the respondents as their preferred CM candidate, followed by incumbent CM Pushkar Singh Dhami.

In the last elections, the BJP had registered a thumping victory by winning 57 seats — the best performance by any party in Uttarakhand.

BJP Likely To Pip AAP, Congress In Goa

In the coastal state of Goa, BJP looks likely to retain power by a slender margin and is expected to bag 17-21 seats, garnering 30 per cent of the vote share, the survey reveals. Incumbent CM Pramod Sawant emerged the most preferred candidate.

After its complete washout in its debut election in 2017, AAP may open its account by winning 5-9 seats, relegating Congress to the third spot.

In 2017, Congress had emerged as the single largest party, winning 17 seats as against the BJP’s 13. However, BJP managed to come to power by cobbling together a coalition with parties like the MGP and the Vijai Sardesai-led Goa Forward Party (GFP).

However, this time GFP announced that it would support the Congress and MGP has forged an alliance with Mamata Banerjee's TMC.

Stiff Challenge For BJP In Manipur

A stiff challenge awaits BJP in Manipur from Congress, even though the ruling party has enjoyed a dream run in North-Eastern states so far.

According to the survey, BJP is likely to win 29-33 seats, the Congress 23-27 and Naga People’s Front (NPF) 2-6 in the 60-member Manipur Assembly.

Like Goa, the BJP did not get an absolute majority in the last election in Manipur in 2017. But it formed the government with support from NPP, NPF and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). Congress had emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats.

Prefered CM Candidates List

The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 92000+ across 5 states (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur) & the survey was carried out during the period 13th November 2021 to 9th December 2021. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.