Elections 2022 ABP CVoter Survey HIGHLIGHTS: Will BJP Return In UP, U'khand, Goa, Manipur? Who Will Form Govt In Punjab? Know Public Mood
Assembly Election 2022 ABP CVoter Survey HIGHLIGHTS: Stay tuned to know about all the latest updates on the Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Poll.
The BIG surprise lies here as Charanjit Singh Channi has fallen behind in the CM race for the first time since November. In December, Charanjit Singh Channi was way ahead of his rivals with more than 32% approval.
This time in the ABP News CVoter survey, AAP's Bhagwant Mann has a whopping 35.7% approval rating, while Channi has slipped to 25.9%.
Whether we will see a change of CM in any of the above states, or will the sitting chief ministers hold the fort will be clear on March 10, 2022, when the results for the five states are announced.
In Goa, incumbent CM Pramod Sawant is the most popular leader among those surveyed, with 34% approval.
AAP's Amit Palekar comes a distant second in the race for CM as per the ABP News CVoter survey. Digambar Kamat, a popular leader of the Congress party has got an approval rating of 7.8%.
Harish Rawat is the most preferred CM choice for Uttarakhand, with 39.4% of the respondents backing him, as per the survey. Incumbent Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami has got the support of 35.5% of the voters, while Rajya Sabha MP and BJP spokesperson Anil Baluni is third on the list with 7.3% votes.
In Uttar Pradesh, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath leads the pack with 43.6% of the voters preferring him, while Akhilesh Yadav at number two finds the support of 33.7% of the voters.
The former chief minister and BSP supremo Mayawati trails way behind with 15.6% while Congress's Priyanka Gandhi manages a little over 4.4%.
Vote Share % — UP Elections 2022 | ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll
ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll reveals that people are putting their faith in BJP run government ahead of UP Polls 2022. As per the ABP News-CVoter survey, BJP is likely to sway 41.2% of the vote share in the state.
SP under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav with RLD as its ally is able to get 35% of the vote share. BSP is reeling with 14.2% of vote share while Congress is at around 7% in the state as per ABP News-CVoter's latest survey.
Seat Projections — UP Elections 2022 | ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll
In the 403-member UP assembly, BJP+ is pegged to get 225 to 237 seats, SP+ is likely to bag between 139 to 151 assembly seats as per ABP News-CVoter's latest survey. BSP is said to bag around 13 to 21 seats in UP, Congress is said to get around 4 to 8 assembly seats.
ABP CVoter Survey For UP: The political contest is tight in 130 seats of Purvanchal. BJP has been projected to get 66-70 seats in the ABP-CVoter survey, while 48 to 52 seats are expected to be secured by Samajwadi Party. Whereas, BSP can get 5-7 seats here. Besides this, Congress is likely to get 1-3 seats while others will get 3-5 seats.
Seats in Purvanchal region (Total Seats-130)
BJP+ 66-70
SP+ 48-52
BSP 5- 7
Congress- 1-3
Others-3-5
According to the survey data of ABP News CVoter, BJP is expected to get 13-17 seats out of 19 seats in Bundelkhand , while SP seems to be reduced to 2-6 seats in this region. Zero to 1 seat can go in the account of BSP, same is the condition of Congress and others in this region.
Seat Projection in Bundelkhand region (Total Seats-19):
BJP+ 13-17
SP+ 2-6
BSP 0-1
Congress- 0-1
Others-0-1
Vote Share:
BJP+ 44%
SP+ 31%
BSP 15%
Congress- 8%
Others- 2%
ABP C Voter Survey For UP Election: In the Awadh region, BJP can get 71-75 seats out of 118 seats. On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party is expected to get 41-45 seats. BSP may witness a poor show as it is expected to win only 1-3 seats. Congress and others may secure mere 0-1 seats in this region.
Seat Projection in Awadh region (Total Seats-118):
BJP+ 71-75
SP+ 41-45
BSP 1-3
Congress 0-1
Others 0-1
Vote Share:
BJP+ 44%
SP+ 34%
BSP 12%
Congress- 7%
Others- 3%
ABP C Voter Survey For UP Election: In the western UP region, there is tough competition for the 136 seats here. BJP can get 71 to 75 seats in this region. At the same time, the Samajwadi Party can also win 53 to 57 seats in this region. The graph for BSP has seen a decline as it is expected to get 4-6 seats. On the other hand, Congress can get 1-3 seats in this region while others can get zero to 2 seats.
Seats in Western UP region (Total Seats-136):
BJP+71-75
SP+ 53-57
BSP 4-6
Congress- 1-3
Others-0-2
Vote Share:
BJP+ 39%
SP+ 36%
BSP 16%
Congress- 7%
Others- 2%
ABP C Voter Survey For Manipur: In terms of seats, BJP can get 21-25 seats out of 60 seats in Manipur. Congress is getting 17-21 seats. On the other hand, NPF can secure 6-10 seats. Apart from this, 8-12 seats can go to others.
Who has how many seats in Manipur?
Total Seat- 60
BJP - 21-25
Congress - 17-21
NPF - 6-10
Others -8-12
ABP C Voter Survey For Manipur: In Manipur, has the highest vote share is projected for BJP. BJP can get 34 per cent votes. On the other hand, Congress is expected to get 28 percent of the vote. Apart from this, NPF is expected to secure 10 per cent of votes. Others can secure 28 percent of the votes.
Vote Share In Manipur:
BJP-34%
Congress-28%
NPF-10%
Others - 28%
Goa Election 2022 — Seat Projection
In the Goa assembly election 2022, by looking at the vote share percentage as predicted by the ABP News-CVoter survey, the contest appears to be tricornered between BJP, Congress, and AAP.
However, on a deep dive looking at the seats projected range by ABP News-CVoter survey, BJP is coming out ahead of both with 14 to 18 seats, Congress at 10 to 14 seats, and AAP at 4 to 8 assembly seats.
As you can see, Congress is making some gains in the last phase of campaigning and looks to surge ahead of the AAP, which was placed second in January's opinion poll. BJP is projected to win the highest 14-18 seats, but still falling short of the majority mark.
Goa Election 2022 — Vote Share %
In the January Opinion Poll, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) was leading the way and looking to gain the most seats in the coastal state of Goa. Now as per the latest ABP News-CVoter Survey, BJP is still ahead with a 30% vote share to be going its way but came down slightly from January. Congress covered some ground in the poll-bound state as the latest ABP News-CVoter Survey suggests 23.6% vote is being captured by them. AAP has the most progressive edge, given the time it has spent in the state, with a 24% vote share coming its way.
The Bhartiya Janta Party is fighting the polls in alliance with Captain Amarinder Singh who quit Congress after a feud with Sidhu and formed his own party Punjab Lok Congress. BJP also has an alliance with SAD (Sanyukt) for the upcoming polls.
With new electoral coalitions and splits between old allies, Punjab politics looks different than it was during the 2017 assembly elections. Hence opinion poll results for Punjab are a lot different than the previous election.
The AAP Aadmi Party is likely to lead in the vote share percentage with 39.8 percent of votes as per the final ABP CVoter Opinion Poll while Congress is at the second position with a vote share of 30%. The SAD alliance is at the third with a 20.2 percent vote share.
If we look at the vote percent region-wise, AAP has the highest support of 45 percent from the Malwa region while Doaba and Manjha regions seem to be contributing to Congress vote share.
ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll | Punjab Assembly Election 2022: Vote Share and Projected Seat Range
In the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is getting the most number of projected seats. The party seems to be making inroads in the state as it is likely to cross the majority mark, i.e. 59 seats in the 117 seat assembly elections, and may form the government.
AAP is projected to win between 55 to 63 assembly seats, while incumbent Congress is coming second with a projected seat range between 24 to 30 seats.
SAD and its alliance may gain between 20 to 26 assembly seats as per the final Opinion poll on Punjab Elections 2022. BJP is projected to bag seats in the range of 3 to 11.
Punjab is divided majorly into three regions: Majha, Doaba, and Malwa.
Of the regions — Malwa is the biggest with 69 Assembly seats in 12 districts and Kejriwal-led AAP seems to be gaining the most in this region with the projected seat range of 45-49 seats.
Manjha has 25 Assembly seats in 4 districts and Congress is likely to lead in this region with 8-12 seats. Doaba has 23 assembly seats in 3 districts the Congress party seems to be ahead in this region with 6-10 seats, while there is a neck-to-neck competition between SAD+ and AAP.
Vote Share % — Uttarakhand Election 2022 | ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll
It makes Aam Aadmi Party an interesting variable considering that BJP is likely to get an overall vote share of 42.6% with INC possibly bagging 40.6% and AAP likely to be holding a 13% share.
The BJP is fighting the election projecting a younger face in Pushkar Singh Dhami, opposed to Congress which is pinning its hopes on the veteran leader and former CM Harish Rawat.
What is interesting to see is whether the Aam Aadmi Party will emerge as a kingmaker in case of a fractured mandate or will the old guards, the BJP, and the Congress sweep the elections in the state to return to power.
As the poll-bound states move a step further to the assembly election, it will be interesting to see who wins the battle in Uttarakhand. The hill state has been shuffling power between BJP and Congress every year since the formation of the state in 2001.
Seat Projection — Uttarakhand Election 2022 | ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll
As per the ABP-CVoter final opinion poll projections, out of Uttarakhand’s 70 seats, BJP might bag 31-37 seats, with Congress getting nearly 30-36 seats. Though the AAP has just made its debut in the state, it may bag 2-4 seats.
ABP CVoter Survey: While the final result of the election will be announced on March 10, ABP News and CVoter conducted an opinion poll to get the pulse of the state.
Background
Assembly Election 2022 ABP CVoter Survey HIGHLIGHTS: Hello and welcome to ABP Live Blog for the final Opinion Poll ahead of the commencement of Assembly Election 2022.
On February 10, the voting process will start with Uttar Pradesh, being the first state to go to the polls in the first of the seven phases. Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand, and Manipur will follow in later dates of polling as recommended by the Election Commissioner of India (ECI) with counting day for all the states is slated to be March 10.
ABP News along with CVoter conducted a survey to gauge the mood of voters right ahead of the Assembly Elections 2022. The ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll highlights several key points related to the states and what voters think of various political parties and their performances ahead of polls.
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be looking to retain power in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Goa, and Uttarakhand while Opposition parties including Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Samajwadi Party (SP), and others are striving to recapture these states.
This ABP-CVoter survey will also highlight the popularity of Chief Ministerial faces for the poll-bound states.
ABP-CVoter survey will also address how people perceive the performance of the state governments and Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led's government at the Centre.
The survey also talks about the challenging issues faced by the country at the moment. It includes factors such as unemployment, economic crisis, farmers' protest, and COVID pandemic.
[Disclaimer: The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 136579 across 5 states (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur) & the survey was carried out during the period 11th January 2022 to 6th February 2022. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.]
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