Gujarat ABP CVoter Opinion Poll 2022: Political environment in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh is steadily hotting up as the assembly elections approach to elect new governments in both states. While the schedule for the polls in both states is yet to be announced by the Election Commission of India, political parties have already geared up for the contest.
Currently, CM Bhupendra Patel-led Bharatiya Janata Party holds 92 seats in the 182-member Gujarat Assembly while the Congress has 78 seats. Nationalist Congress Party and Bharatiya Tribal Party have one seat each and Independents have two seats in the House.
To understand the mood of the voters ahead of the 2022 assembly election, ABP News teamed up with CVoter to conduct opinion polls in the poll-bound states. With seat projections, vote share percentage, and ground assessment done over a period of time, ABP-CVoter have come out with the key findings of the early opinion poll.
ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll | Gujarat Assembly Election 2022: Vote Share and Projected Seat Range
Bharatiya Janata Party
The ruling party in Gujarat, currently with 99 seats, is expected to maintain its streak as the single largest party in the state with a projection of 135 to 143 seats, expanding the margin by 40 seats. However, the vote share for the saffron party may see a dip and settle at around 46.8 per cent against the 49.1 per cent vote share it secured in the 2017 assembly election.
The projected seat range for the ruling party for the 2022 Gujarat Assembly election is between 135 and 143 seats, as per the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll.
Congress
The main Opposition in Gujarat may see a significant reduction in its seat share and vote share in the upcoming election. As per the CVoter survey, the Congress party that won 77 seats in 2017 polls is expected to remain limited to 36 to 44 seats.
The survey suggests that the party may lose its vote share by a margin of around 9.2 per cent, slashing it to 32.3 per cent as against 41.4 per cent in the 2017 Gujarat Assembly elections.
Aam Aadmi Party
Making its debut in the 2022 Gujarat Assembly election, the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party may struggle to gain a foothold in BJP’s turf with a single seat projection in the upcoming polls while it is expected to garner a vote share of around 17.4 per cent.
As per the ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll, the Aam Aadmi Party has been projected to have a seat range from 0-2.
ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll | Gujarat Assembly Election 2022: Favoured Chief Minister Candidate
Current CM Bhupendar Patel is leading the race as the preferred CM candidate with 34.6 per cent of voters favouring him.
Despite having very low projections for seat and vote share, the second most preferred candidate for the voters in Gujarat is the CM candidate that will be fielded by Aam Aadmi Party even as the party is yet to declare its CM candidate. As per the ABP-Cvoter survey, 15.6 per cent of voters would prefer an AAP CM.
Former Gujarat CM Vijay Rupani and Nitin Bhai Patel from BJP are preferred by 9.2 per cent and 5 per cent of voters, respectively.
Congress candidates Shakti Singh Gohli and Bharat Singh Solanki are the choice for the next Gujarat CM among 4.9 per cent and 4.0 per cent of voters respectively.
CR Patil from BJP is being preferred by 3.7 per cent of voters, Hardik Patel by 2.9 per cent, and Arjun Modwadia from Congress by 2.8 per cent of voters.
Candidates from other parties and Independents are being favoured by 17.4 per cent of voters for the 2022 Gujarat Assembly elections.
[Disclaimer: The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 68,638 across 2 states (Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh). The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.]