ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll: BJP Set To Reign Supreme In Northeast, I.N.D.I.A Faces Washout In LS Polls

According to an opinion poll survey by ABP-CVoter, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could win as many as 9 of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in the Northeast.

Once a fringe player in the Northeast, the BJP is now a preeminent political player in the region, as it is in power in six of the seven states that are known as the ‘Seven Sisters’.

While running majority governments in Assam, Manipur, Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh, the BJP is also a partner in the ruling coalitions in Meghalaya and Nagaland. The only state in the region currently where the BJP is in the Opposition is Mizoram.

So, as the nation heads into the next Lok Sabha elections, is the BJP well-poised to keep hold of the Northeast, towering over all political rivals in the region? Or, does the I.N.D.I.A bloc stand a chance of stopping the saffron juggernaut in the battle for the ‘Seven Sisters’?

According to an opinion poll survey by ABP-CVoter, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could win as many as 9 of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in the Northeast, excluding BJP-ruled Assam.

The survey further revealed that the I.N.D.I.A bloc, led by the Congress, is headed for a washout in the upcoming elections as it is likely to win a lone Lok Sabha seat in the region.

Also, as per the survey, another seat in the region is likely to fall into the kitty of ‘Others’, rounding off the tally.

Further breaking down the probable vote share across all Northeast states, barring Assam, the survey by ABP-CVoter found the NDA is poised to claim the majority vote share in Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh.

In Arunachal, the BJP, according to the opinion poll survey, is likely to bag 61 per cent of the total votes polled, with I.N.D.I.A trailing at 32 per cent and ‘Others’ at 7 per cent.

Significantly, in Manipur, the BJP-led NDA is shown to be hogging the majority vote share at 50 per cent, with I.N.D.I.A at 34 per cent and ‘Others’ at 16 per cent.

If the projected numbers in BJP-ruled Manipur hold, it would mean minimal electoral impact of the ethnic violence over several months that has displaced scores while claiming many lives.

The Opposition, which disrupted both Houses of Parliament over the situation in Manipur, could fail to translate the same into votes in the ensuing elections, if the projected numbers are anything to go by.

In a further break-up of the 9 seats that the NDA is projected to be winning in the Northeast states, barring Assam, the BJP, according to the survey, is poised to win 5 (2 in Tripura, 2 in Arunachal and 1 in Manipur).

The NPP and the NDPP, which are ruling partners of the BJP in Meghalaya and Nagaland, are poised to win 2 and 1 seats respectively, according to the survey.

[Disclaimer: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Opinion Poll Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) conducted among 41,762 adults, all confirmed voters. The surveys were conducted from February 1 to March 10, 2024. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. The final data has socio-economic profiles within +/- 1% of the demographic profile of the states. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all 543 electoral constituencies in the country. The margin of error is +/- 5% and the vote share projections have been done with 95% confidence interval.]