ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll: The latest opinion poll conducted by ABP News and CVoter in West Bengal has projected a closely contested battle between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
According to the seat share projection, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to secure 20 seats, while the I.N.D.I.A bloc, including the TMC’s share, is projected to win 22 seats out of the total 42 parliamentary constituencies.
In terms of alliance seat share, the BJP is anticipated to clinch all 20 seats. On the other hand, the TMC too is forecasted to secure 20 seats, with the Congress expected to win two seats, and the CPI(M) drawing a blank.
In terms of vote percentage, the TMC is expected to get a 43.5% share, while the BJP is likely to secure 41.9%, followed by the Congress at 6.3%, the CPI(M) at 6% and others may log 2.3%.
The TMC's decision to contest the elections on its own, without a seat-sharing arrangement with its I.N.D.I.A. allies, had stirred speculation regarding the strength of the bloc as it raised questions about its cohesion and effectiveness.
The BJP, which made significant gains in West Bengal during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, is poised to further consolidate its position in the state. From winning just two seats in 2014, the BJP's tally surged to 18 in 2019, indicating a considerable rise in its popularity.
It is important to note that Bengal possesses the third highest number of Lok Sabha seats with 42 constituencies, only behind Uttar Pradesh with 80 and Maharashtra with 48.
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Lok Sabha Election 2024: BJP Mounts Attack On Bengal Govt Over Sandeshkhali, Corruption Cases. TMC Hits Back
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP have intensified their attacks on the TMC, citing incidents like the Sandeshkhali controversy, where TMC’s now-suspended leader Shajahan Sheikh was implicated in cases of sexual harassment and land grabbing. The BJP has leveraged such incidents to highlight alleged misrule and corruption under the TMC regime.
The implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) is expected to influence electoral dynamics, particularly in constituencies with a significant presence of Matua, Dalit Bengali Hindus, and Scheduled Caste groups who migrated from Bangladesh. The Matua community, comprising Hindu refugees from Bangladesh, is believed to hold considerable sway in West Bengal's political landscape.
Corruption allegations against TMC leaders, coupled with ongoing investigations by central probe agencies, have also become a focal point of BJP's campaign in the state.
On the other hand, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has claimed that the BJP would not even secure 200 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
The chief minister and her party have also accused the BJP-led Centre of withholding funds owed to West Bengal under schemes like the 'PM Awas Yojana' and '100 days' scheme', amounting to Rs 1.74 lakh crore, which, they claim were hindering the state's governance.
Banerjee further claimed that the Congress-Left Front had aligned with the BJP in Bengal, asserting that her party would play a crucial role in forming the government at the Centre while refusing to support the CPI(M) and Congress in Bengal due to their alleged alliance with the BJP.
West Bengal is set to witness its 18th Lok Sabha polls spread across all seven phases from April 19 to June 1, the electoral battle promises to be fiercely contested, with both the TMC and BJP vying for supremacy in the state.
(Methodology: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Opinion Poll CATI interviews (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.)