ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll: Tamil Nadu is an important southern fort for the I.N.D.I.A bloc to be able to put up a real fight against the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) juggernaut in the upcoming Lok Sabha Election 2024, while the saffron party is also leaving no stone unturned to make a mark in the state to be able to realise its aim of securing 370 seats on its own.
The latest opinion poll conducted by ABP News and CVoter in Tamil Nadu forecasts a sweeping victory for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance, with the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.) bloc projected to secure 39 out of 39 Lok Sabha seats in the state. On the other hand, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) are expected to draw a blank.
Within Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led alliance is projected to clinch 30 seats, with the Congress securing the remaining nine. The alliance, consisting of Congress, Left parties, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), MDMK, IUML, and KMDK, aims to dominate all 39 Lok Sabha segments in Tamil Nadu and the lone constituency in Puducherry. The AIADMK, which cut ties with the BJP last year, faces an uphill battle.
In terms of vote percentage, the I.N.D.I.A. bloc is expected to get a 51.8% share, while the NDA and the AIADMK are likely to secure 19% and 23% respectively, and others may log 6.2%.
If the projections are proven accurate, the DMK could again be the third-largest party in the Lok Sabha, behind the BJP and the Congress, in the 18th Lok Sabha. In 2019, the BJP won a total of 293 seats, INC won 50, and DMK won 20.
Tamil Nadu, with 39 seats, sends the most Lok Sabha parliamentarians from the southern part of the country.
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Lok Sabha Election 2024: BJP’s Tamil Nadu Push And Political Narratives In DMK’s Fort
The projection comes as the BJP is intensifying its efforts in Tamil Nadu. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during the unveiling of the BJP's election manifesto today, pledged to promote the Tamil language globally. The manifesto promises the establishment of Thiruvalluvar Cultural Centres worldwide to elevate Tamil language and culture. Modi's frequent visits to Tamil Nadu and engagements with Tamil cultural icons indicate a concerted effort to connect with the Tamil society.
The party's focus on promoting the Tamil language and culture underscores its determination to make inroads into the state's political landscape where it is stuck with an outsider tag.
Notably, the political narrative in Tamil Nadu revolves around issues such as the BJP's perceived threat to India's federal polity and democracy, Dravidian identity, and cultural rights, including language. The DMK has highlighted concerns over Centre-state relations and financial matters. Additionally, recent events, such as the arrest of an ex-DMK functionary, have sparked political controversies, with the BJP and AIADMK aiming to leverage them as election issues while also hitting out at the MK Stalin-led party over dynasticism.
The parliamentary elections in Tamil Nadu are scheduled to be held in a single phase on April 19.
(Methodology: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Opinion Poll CATI interviews (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.)