ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll: The latest ABP News and CVoter opinion poll for Karnataka has projected significant seat share for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), particularly the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. With a total of 28 Lok Sabha seats up for grabs, Karnataka holds considerable sway in the electoral landscape.
The latest ABP News and CVoter opinion poll for Karnataka has projected that the NDA is expected to secure 23 seats, while I.N.D.I.A bloc is projected to win 5 seats, bringing the total to 28 seats. Breaking down the alliance seat share projection, the BJP is expected to clinch 21 seats, the Janata Dal-Secular (JDS) is projected to win 2 seats, and the Congress is expected to secure 5 seats.
In terms of vote percentage, the I.N.D.I.A. bloc is expected to get a 42.0% share, while the NDA is likely to secure 52%, and others may log 6%.
The Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka are scheduled across two phases, with polling dates set for April 26 and May 7, as announced by the Election Commission on March 16. This year, Karnataka will conclude its Lok Sabha polls early in the first quarter.
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Lok Sabha Election 2024: BJP Vs Congress In Karnataka
The BJP has already announced its candidates for 20 seats in Karnataka, featuring prominent names such as Jagadish Shettar, Basavraj Bommai, Pralhad Joshi, and Tejasvi Surya, contesting from Belgaum, Haveri, Dharwad, and Bengaluru South respectively. Meanwhile, the Congress has nominated candidates including Priyanka Jarakiholi, Mrunal Ravindra Hebbalkar, Samyukta S Patil, H R Algur, Radhakrishna, G Kumar Naik, Sagar Khandre, K. Rajashekar Basavaraj Hitnal, Anandaswamy Gaddadevara, Math, Anjali Nimbalkar, among others.
The electoral landscape in Karnataka has been enlivened by the participation of three former Chief Ministers from the NDA camp. Basavaraj Bommai (Haveri), Jagadish Shettar (Belgaum), and H D Kumaraswamy (Mandya) have entered the Lok Sabha race, adding fervor to the campaign in the Congress-governed state. While Bommai and Shettar hail from the BJP and belong to the Lingayat community, Kumaraswamy, a Vokkaliga, leads the JD(S) and is the son of former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda. Of the total 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka, the BJP is contesting in 25, while the JD(S), which joined the NDA last September, is contesting in three.
Basavaraj Bommai, in particular, stands out as he makes his debut in the Lok Sabha polls, a year after the BJP's underwhelming performance in the assembly polls held in May last year, during which he held the position of Chief Minister. Currently representing Shiggaon as an MLA, Bommai, the son of Janata Pariwar stalwart late S R Bommai, is contesting from the Haveri Lok Sabha seat. The 64-year-old, a four-time MLA, served as Chief Minister from 2021 to 2023.
On the other hand, the Congress leadership has continued to express confidence in the prospects of their victory. Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah criticised the BJP's slogan 'Abki Baar, Chaar Sau Paar' (This time more than 400 seats), labeling it as a tactic to divert public attention from the reality of their dwindling prospects.
He asserted that the INDIA bloc and other anti-BJP parties will emerge victorious in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
Siddaramaiah dismissed the likelihood of the NDA securing an absolute majority this time, stating, “Because they know they will not get a simple majority in the Parliament, they are diverting the minds of people.” Accusing the BJP of disavowing the Indian Constitution, Siddaramaiah highlighted BJP MP Anantkumar Hegde's controversial statement on amending the Constitution, pointing to the party's failure to take action against him. He cited the Hindutva ideologues V D Savarkar and M S Golwalkar’s alleged opposition towards the Constitution drafted by B R Ambedkar as evidence of the BJP's historical stance against it.
(Methodology: Current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Opinion Poll CATI interviews (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the States. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. Our final data file has Socio-Economic profile within +/- 1% of the Demographic profile of the State. We believe this will give the closest possible trends. The sample spread is across all Assembly segments in the poll bound state. MoE is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level VOTE SHARE projection with 95% Confidence interval.)