The Election Commission sounded the poll bugle for Karnataka election on Wednesday by announcing the dates of voting and the result. While the poll will be held on May 10, the results will be declared on May 13.
Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar, while announcing the dates said that the polling has been scheduled on a Wednesday to ensure maximum participation of voters. Scheduling the polling on a Wednesday would leave little room for people to take leaves and go on a holiday over the weekend had it been held on a Monday or a Friday.
Just months ahead of the election, the ABP-CVoter opinion poll tried to gauge the mood of the state and the results turned out to be quite interesting. A majority of the respondents in the survey preferred NOT to vote for the Bharatiya Janata Party, which has been singing praises of the virtues of a "double-engine government".
The sense of anti-incumbency could be seen in 33.3% of the respondents in the survey that was conducted among 24,759 eligible voters across Karnataka. Several factors could have led to the voters to make this decision. First, the BJP seems to be dealing with a simmering discontent among its leaders.
The anger of some party leaders against BS Yediyurappa, which eventually led to his resignation in 2021, is yet to abate. Even recently, when the BJP leader said that his son Vijayendra would be contesting the Shikaripura assembly seat, national secretary of the party CT Ravi retorted that candidates are decided in the party's parliamentary board meetings and "not in someone's kitchen".
Second, since its ascent to power after the dismissal of the previous minority JD(S)-Congress government headed by HD Kumaraswamy in 2019, the BJP has been inducting heavyweights from the Congress and JD(S). These leaders, like former Rajya Sabha member K B Krishnamurthy, former minister S D Jayaram’s son Ashok Jayaram, are powerful in their own right. However, the BJP seems to have realised the risks in raising turncoats to higher posts. The party is now focussing on strengthening its base among the Vokkaliga and Lingayat communities.
With BS Yediyurappa, who enjoys the support of the Lingayat community, facing stiff opposition from several party leaders, the BJP is trying hard to get its balancing act right. While it made Yediyurappa its poll mascott, it scrapped the 2% reservation for Muslims under the 2B category of the backward classes in the state, reallocating the quota to the Vokkaligas and Lingayats under the 2C and 2D categories. The move is being seen as a last-ditch effort to drum up support for a larger "Hindutva" ideology.
Moreover, the party's shoddy handling of the COVID crisis, poor management of urban floods, and allegations of rampant corruption have also played a role in the anti-incumbency sentiment. To top it all, the Opposition's persistent anti-corruption campaigns of "PayCM" and "40% Government" seemed to have gained some traction, leading to a less-than-desirable opinion about CM Basavaraj Bommai's government.
The Congress did slightly better on this front but the percentage of voters (30.5%) that did not support it could still be a worrying factor for the Grand Old Party.
[Disclaimer: The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter from February 26 to March 26. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 24,759 across Karnataka. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.]