The Election Commission on Wednesday declared that the Karnataka assembly elections would take place on May 10 in a single phase, with the counting of votes to occur on May 13. This sets the stage for a crucial electoral battle between the BJP and Congress leading up to the 2024 Lok Sabha showdown. The state has a 224-member assembly, and the Janata Dal (Secular) is the third major political party, with 28 MLAs. The BJP currently holds 119 seats, with the Congress following closely behind with 75 seats, while two seats remain vacant.
To understand the pulse of the state ahead of the scheduled assembly election, ABP News in association with CVoter conducted a survey. Let us look at the overall finding of the ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll and what story it predicts about the Karnataka elections in 2023.
ABP News-CVoter Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023 — Vote Share Percentage
As per the ABP News-CVoter survey, Congress remains the party in the lead with 40.1% of the vote share getting their way. It is a 2.1% upswing for Congress from the 2018 Karnataka assembly election results. BJP is losing some foothold as they dip to 34.7% from their vote share of 36% from the previous state assembly election. The regional party Janata Dal (Secular)-led by HD Deve Gowda remains almost constant in terms of vote share. As per the ABP-CVoter survey, JDS will be able to gather 17.9% vote share which is -0.1% down from their 2018 Karnataka assembly election performance.
ABP News-CVoter Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023 — Seat Range Projection
BJP had wrested fort from Congress in the 2018 Karnataka assembly election but fell short of the majority. It won 104 seats last time around in the state assembly election and is projected to bag in the range of 68 to 80 assembly seats as per the ABP News-CVoter Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023.
Congress will gain major ground as they are swinging in between the 115 to 127 seat range for the 2023 Karnataka assembly polls as per the ABP News-CVoter Survey.
JD(S) got 37 seats in the 2018 Karnataka assembly election and is predicted to get from 23 to 35 assembly seats as per the ABP-CVoter opinion poll.
As per the latest ABP News-CVoter Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023, it seems that Congress will swing easily within the majority range in the state assembly election as BJP under CM Bommai will see an ouster while JDS remains strong but non-threatening side in front of the national parties.
[Disclaimer: The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter from February 26 to March 26. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 24,759 across Karnataka. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.]