Q4 Earnings, Geopolitical Conflicts, Macro Data To Drive Markets Ahead, Say Analysts

Experts said that the week is estimated to see more uncertainty owing to the emerging conflict between Israel and Iran, in turn causing fluctuations in crude oil prices

Macroeconomic data, geopolitical events, and company earnings for the fourth quarter will drive the stock market in the week ahead, analysts noted. The markets will have a holiday-shortened trading week owing to the holiday for Ram Navami on Wednesday.

Further, experts said that the week is estimated to see more uncertainty owing to the emerging conflict between Israel and Iran. Commenting on the market movements last week, Aamar Deo Singh, Senior VP, Research, Angel One, said, “Despite increased volatility in Indian markets last week, the benchmark indices Nifty, Sensex, and Bank Nifty all finished the week flat. The US CPI for March came in much higher than predicted at 3.5%, the highest since September 2023. The India VIX is still trading below the 12-mark, reflecting general investor optimism, even though last week's market volatility was particularly high.”

Sharing the outlook, Singh added, “The likelihood of a US FED rate drop in June, which alarmed international markets as well, has decreased in light of these statistics and the US labour market's ongoing resilience. It will also be interesting to observe the market's reaction to TCS's results, as its earnings surpassed street estimates while its revenues fell short of forecasts. The markets will likely be driven by a number of factors next week, including the significant sell-off on Friday, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, worries about the tax treaty between Mauritius and India, and the quarterly results of key companies like Jio Financial, Infosys, and Bajaj Auto. Important support for the Nifty is around the 22200–22300 range, while resistance is seen in the 22700–22800 range. Due to various domestic and international triggers in the upcoming week, investors are recommended to exercise caution.”

Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said that the market would also monitor fluctuations in crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical events, reported PTI. “Investors will be watching for earnings reports from Infosys, Bajaj Auto, and Wipro later in the week. On the macroeconomic front, China's GDP data, US retail sales figures, and movements in the US bond yields and the dollar index will be important factors influencing market sentiment,” he added.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, commented that investors will be keenly observing the Q4 earnings and geopolitical events for market direction. Notably, the markets slipped after reaching highs in the first half of the week. The BSE benchmark index, Sensex, declined by 3.32 points after settling at a record high of 75,038.15 on Wednesday.