India's Inflation Seen Easing In March On Softening Food Price Rises: Economists Poll

Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, is expected to have moderated due to falling vegetable prices, offset in part by surging cereal prices

Consumer inflation in India likely eased to 5.80 per cent in March on softer food price rises, a Reuters poll of economists found. The data is due on April 12, less than a week after the RBI surprised markets and analysts by holding its key interest rate steady at 6.50 per cent when most expected a 25 basis point rise.

Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, is expected to have moderated due to falling vegetable prices, offset in part by surging cereal prices.

Inflation as measured by the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI) was forecast to have fallen to 5.80 per cent in March from 6.44 per cent in February, according to the median view from the April 3-6 Reuters poll of 39 economists.

If realised, this would be the only month this year so far inflation is reported below the 6.00 per cent the RBI upper tolerance limit.

Forecasts ranged from 5.40 per cent to 6.40 per cent, with a quarter of survey respondents predicting inflation above 6.00 per cent. It was 6.52 per cent in January and spent most of last year above 6.00 per cent.

Sujit Kumar, economist at Union Bank of India, said vegetables and fuel likely pulled inflation down, as well as the fact the base from a year ago was particularly strong. But with oil prices having surged more than 20 per cent from their recent lows, fuel is likely to push inflation back up again. "We think the RBI's stance is somewhat risky, with inflation having proven far stickier than the Bank should be comfortable with," noted Mitul Kotecha, head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities.

Inflation was expected to average 5.2 per cent in the current fiscal year, well above the medium-term target of 4.0 per cent, according to a separate Reuters poll.

In a surprise move, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Governor Shaktikanta Das, on Thursday announced to keep policy rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.

In a bid to contain inflation the RBI has already increased the repo rate by a total of 250 basis points since May 2022. However, inflation has continued to remain above the RBI's comfort zone of 6 per cent most of the time.