Moody's Predicts Lower GDP Growth For India In 2024; Check The New Number Here

According to the report by Stefan Angrick, Senior Economist, and Jeemin Bang, Associate Economist at Moody's Analytics, the Asia Pacific (APAC) region is outperforming other parts of the world

Moody's Analytics predicted a 6.1 per cent growth for India's economy in 2024, down from the 7.7 per cent growth registered in 2023. The report released on Friday highlighted that India's output remains 4 per cent below its potential level even without the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other disruptions, such as supply chain disruptions to international conflicts. "Economies in South and Southeast Asia will see some of the strongest output gains this year, but their performance is flattered by a delayed post-pandemic rebound. We expect India’s GDP to grow 6.1 per cent in 2024 after 7.7 per cent last year," said Moody's Analytics.

APAC Economy:

According to the report by Stefan Angrick, Senior Economist, and Jeemin Bang, Associate Economist at Moody's Analytics, the Asia Pacific (APAC) region is outperforming other parts of the world. The report stated that the APAC economy is projected to grow by 3.8 per cent this year, in contrast to the 2.5 per cent growth expected for the global economy. The report observed that when assessing GDP compared to its pre-pandemic trajectory, India and Southeast Asia have experienced major global output declines and are just starting to rebound. 

In terms of inflation, it noted that the forecast for China and India is more uncertain. "Inflation in India is at the opposite extreme, with recent consumer price inflation rates hovering around 5 per cent, close to the upper end of the Reserve Bank of India's target range of 2 to 6 per cent and without clear evidence of a trend towards slowing price pressures," said the report.

Reserve Bank Of India's Stance:

Meanwhile, earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) indicated that uncertainties surrounding food prices persist, influencing the future trajectory of inflation. In addition, the central bank upheld its projection of 4.5 per cent for retail inflation during the current fiscal year 2024-25. The RBI further highlighted that ongoing geopolitical tensions present potential risks to both commodity prices going up and supply chain disruption.

The RBI's inflation forecasts include an estimate of 4.9 per cent for the June quarter and 3.8 per cent for the September quarter. Looking ahead to the December and March quarters, the projected inflation rates stand at 4.6 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively.