The Budget may be personally important for FM Sitharaman as it gives her a unique opportunity to prove her mettle after stepping into the shoes of more illustrious predecessors. But what's challenging is the fact that she has a daunting task of bringing back economic growth while maintaining fiscal discipline.
The Budget to be presented on Friday is expected to boost spending at the cost of short-term slippage in fiscal deficit targets as the newly appointed Finance Minister lays down the road map of Modi government 2.0 taking India towards a $5 trillion economy by 2025.
Here's what to expect from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's maiden Budget for 2019-20 fiscal on Friday:
Relief for common man, upping spending on agriculture, healthcare, social sectors expected
Some believe FM Sitharaman may give relief to the common man by raising personal income tax threshold for certain categories while at the same time, upping spending on agriculture, healthcare and social sectors.
Big push for infrastructure spending on roads, railways likely
Also, there is expected to be a big push for infrastructure spending including on roads and railways to drive growth which had slowed to a five-year low of 5.8 per cent in the first three months of 2019 -- well below China's 6.4 per cent. The slowdown is also reflected in high-frequency numbers such as IIP and automobile sales numbers. The economy has also been impacted by slowing trade, rising protectionism, trade conflict between the United States and China, Brexit, US sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela impacted the domestic economy.
The sluggishness in the economy has led to expectations of the budget containing further stimulus measures to boost the growth through new policy initiatives and continued reforms to achieve accelerated growth and increase in employment.
Capital infusion in PSBs
According to industry pundits, FM Sitharaman may consider capital infusion in Public Sector Banks (PSBs) in in a combined form, removing the roadblocks that have crept into the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code process, providing liquidity to non-bank financial companies (NBFCs), address the agrarian crisis and step up allocations for infrastructure and social sectors.
But, the combined effect of all these would be that the budget deficit may widen to 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019-20 that began on April 1, instead of 3.4 per cent target.
Middle class may gain from expected higher tax deductions
The middle-class tax payers may have a lot to cheer about in the Budget proposals to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday. Sources said that the Budget 2019-20 will take the sops announced in the Interim Budget further by raising the basic tax exemption limit for an individual income tax payee to Rs 3 lakh from Rs 2.50 lakh at present to cover for the inflationary impact over the years.
In the Interim Budget, the government had proposed a rebate on all payable taxes if an individual's taxable income is up to Rs 5 lakh per annum. But it kept the basic exemption levels unchanged.
Moreover, individuals would also have increased avenue to save tax as deduction from taxable income available under section 80 C of the Income Tax Act may be raised to Rs 2 lakh from the present limit of Rs 1.5 lakh. The Rs 50,000 additional annual saving window for investment made in National Pension Scheme (NPS) will, however, continue increasing the total savings under Section 80 C to Rs 2.5 lakhs.
Tax deduction limit on interest on home loans may be increased
Budget 2019 may also reward the middle-class by increasing the ability to buy their dream home. In this regard, the tax deduction limit on interest on home loans may be increased to Rs 2.5 lakh a year from the present Rs 2 lakh limit. But this enhanced benefit will come with withdrawal of deduction for interest on second house that was allowed earlier.
FM Sitharaman is also expected to the lower income group is return of a scheme similar to the earlier Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme. The RGESS was a tax saving scheme announced in the 2012-2013 Union Budget aimed at first-time retail investors to encourage the flow of savings of small investors in the domestic capital market. The Budget 2019-20 is expected to re-launch the scheme with a new name and additional parameters.
Budget may hike farm funds, raise subsidy
Continuing its focus on the stressed agriculture sector in the upcoming full Budget on July 5, the Finance Ministry is likely to increase allocation by a minimum 30 per cent over the interim Budget figures, as well as announce a flagship farmers' scheme, official sources. The Centre may also further catalyse some of the existing farmer support schemes, including for minimum support price (MSP), interest rate subvention and higher fertiliser subsidy.
The Budget may also announce a higher interest rate subvention for crops affected by natural calamities like the recent cyclone 'Fani' and also on timely repayment of loans, the sources said, adding there is no direct farm loan waiver under consideration as the government does not want to encourage this credit culture.
(With inputs from agencies)