For the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and its supremo Mamata Banerjee, the third term in West Bengal, which began in May 2021, is proving to be a tough one. In the first two terms, Banerjee had her way, both in administering the state and running the party affairs. But in the third term, the ground realities are different and the changes are visible. Giving electoral prominence to BJP turncoats like Babul Supriyo, walking a soft Hindutva line, growing violence against minorities and increasing corruption charges against the Mamata Banerjee government are among the several reasons for growing disenchantment.
In Bengal, Muslims account for 27.01 per cent of the state's population. This section has been supporting the Trinamool Congress for the past several years. Earlier, for decades, the minorities of Bengal had voted for the Left Front. But the shift started in 2011, and since then, the Muslim community had been the key voter base of Mamata Banerjee. But there is a growing unease among them today.
In the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections, the consolidation of Muslim votes took place because of the aggressive Hindutva push by the BJP. The only alternative in front of the minority, the less powerful Left-Congress alliance, has lost its electoral credibility. That is why this section chose to vote for Banerjee. The Leftist regime used to maintain an equal distance between showing off their Hindu identity and Muslim appeasement. But Banerjee started her political career by providing a lot of financial aid and support to the minorities, and she never hesitated to show her affection for the community.
But from the 2021 assembly election campaign, the Mamata Banerjee's stance started to change as she aggressively put forward her Hindu credentials, visiting temples, chanting mantras at rallies, and so on. Amid rise of the BJP in West Bengal, with Banerjee showing off her Hindu credentials, the possibility that the Muslims got scared of negligence cannot be wiped out.
TMC Ignored Warnings Of Discontent
TMC recently lost the Sagardighi bypoll to the Congress. The loss of the constituency, which the ruling party had won by a margin of over 50,000 votes in the 2021 elections, is not only shocking but its impact will be felt far and wide. The verdict in Sagardighi, a constituency with over 60 per cent Muslim population, punctured the notion that the TMC was seen by minorities as the only option to safeguard their interests.
This not just shows that people are unhappy, but the party also sent out warnings before the election. A by-election for the Ballygunge assembly was held last year, which showed this discontent among the community. This by-election was held following the passing of senior TMC leader Subrata Mukherjee, and the party fielded former BJP leader and union minister of state Babul Supriyo, who joined the TMC just a few months before the election.
Minority groups, citizens, and intellectuals staged massive demonstrations against Supriyo's candidacy. The singer-turned-politician had a poor reputation due to his divisive remarks against Muslims. In the 2021 assembly elections, Subrata Mukherjee of the TMC won the seat with 70% of the vote, the BJP received approximately 20% of the vote, and the Left, with the support of Congress, received approximately 5% of the vote. However, within a year, everything changed, and the TMC received only 49% of the vote in the by-election, while the Congress-supported left received approximately 30% and the BJP received 12%. In the heart of Kolkata, the Ballygunge assembly constituency is also a Muslim-populated constituency. Supriyo won the election, but the shift in vote share and the rise of the left indicate that the minority vote shifted away from the TMC and moved towards the Left.
TMC Took In Leaders Who Made Anti-Muslim Comments In The Past
Before the West Bengal elections of 2021, the BJP attempted to destabilise the TMC and seized a number of its leaders. After joining the BJP to polarise the assembly election, the defectors made a number of divisive statements against the minorities. Simultaneously, the Bharatiya Janata Party aggressively promoted Hindutva, which alarmed the community. To gain favour, these TMC defectors became more aggressive in their polarised position. But in the end, the TMC won the election, and within a few months, these defectors began to express their discontent with the BJP and desire to rejoin their former party.
The TMC opened its gates and accepted leaders like Arjun Singh and Rajiv Banerjee. Not just this, the party recruited leaders from the BJP, such as Babul Supriyo. All of these leaders have repeatedly attacked the Muslim way of life, religious practices, and other aspects of their culture. Recent discontent is a clear indication that the community has never accepted Mamata Banerjee's decision to reinstate such anti-minority leaders.
Atrocities Against Muslims
In the past two years, the number of atrocities committed against Muslims in West Bengal have multiplied. In providing justice to the community, the governing party has remained silent or has been less active. Anis Khan, a student activist, died after being pursued by police last year, and the case has yet to be solved. The family blamed the police, but the state government avoided responsibility by scapegoating some lower-ranking police officers. The TMC government did not show much empathy towards the family. Left and the Congress fought alongside the family for justice. Due to the government of Mamata Banerjee's silence, attitude, and inaction, this event shook the community's conscience. Then, the heinous Bogtui massacre occurred during which, over four Muslim homes were torched and 12 individuals were burned to death. Mamata Banerjee reached out to the family and visited the area following widespread criticism from all sectors of society and politics. She announced aid packages for the families and ordered the arrest of the TMC block committee president. However, the party remained largely silent on the issue, and the case was transferred to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) by the Calcutta High Court, which determined that the police had not conducted an adequate investigation. In addition to these two examples, there are numerous other instances of atrocities committed against Muslims. According to the family members of the victims, the TMC leaders and local administration are usually aware of such incidents. However, in the wake of such violence, the minorities in Bengal are feeling abandoned by the ruling party and the administration.
Crackdown Against Indian Secular Front
Abbas Siddiqui, one of the most popular clerics at the Furfura Shariff Dargah, went into politics and formed the Indian Secular Front (ISF) before the West Bengal Assembly Elections in 2021. The ISF collaborated with the Left and Congress. Naushad Siddiqui, brother of Abbas Siddiqui, won the election in the Bhangar Assembly constituency. Recently, the West Bengal police instituted a massive crackdown against Siddiqui and incarcerated him for more than a month. The crackdown against Naushad Siddiqui has caused widespread dissatisfaction within the Muslim community at a time when several cases of corruption against the top leaders of Mamata Banerjee's party have come to light and the violence against minorities has been on the rise. Several minority groups in West Bengal believe that the arrest and frivolous charges against Siddiqui contributed to Banerjee's deteriorating relationship with the community.
After losing the by-election, Banerjee got rid of the leaders who had been in-charge of building the Furfura Shariff, a well-known and esteemed mazar in West Bengal. This indicates that the state's crackdown against the ISF could also be one of the reasons behind discontent in the community.
Strategic Silence
Mamata Banerjee is a political and social leader with a strong voice. When the Centre introduced the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act in the Parliament, she led massive protests across West Bengal, and her party also protested it within the Parliament. But, following her victory in the 2021 assembly elections, she changed her stance and became more outspoken on a number of issues pertaining to minority justice and rights. For instance, during the Hijab controversy, Banerjee maintained a strategic silence. Her silence also hurt some sections of the minority in West Bengal.
At a recent party meeting, the leader of the TMC made organizational changes and established a committee to investigate the loss in the Sagardighi by-election. Banerjee continues to enjoy immense popularity in West Bengal, and in the absence of any opposition leader who can match her popularity, the West Bengal Chief Minister's electoral prospects remain favourable. Banerjee should reevaluate her political stance on minorities as in the absence of a course correction, these voters will likely be split between the Congress and the CPM.
The author is a columnist and doctoral research scholar in media & politics.
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