UP Results 2022: A Paradigm Change In State. Opposition Has To Reinvent Itself To Take On New BJP

Remember Rahul Gandhi at his maiden press conference with Akhilesh Yadav in Lucknow announcing the alliance between Samajwadi Party and the Congress? He said “Uttar Pradesh har samay sahi ‘Uttar’ deti Hai”. It did give a resounding answer in March 2017.

Uttar Pradesh has spoken again in 2022. And this time, the answer is more for the benefit of journalists and psephologists who had all but written off Yogi Adityanath’s return. Reasons cited starting from his handling of the pandemic, unemployment, anti-incumbency, and factionalism amongst different caste blocs in the BJP. Add to that the theories about strains in the relationship between Yogi Adityanath and Narendra Modi.

The exit polls on March 7 came as a rude shock to those who were hoping against hope for a BJP defeat. The surprise or disappointment was not as much because of the surveys predicting a win for the BJP but the estimates of the margin of victory. Those who would have liked to see BJP lose at best gave it a chance to win by a whisker. The results coming in this morning have upset all calculations. So, there is a scramble to think of retrofit logic to explain the astounding numbers that are in favour of BJP both in terms of seat count and vote share. There is a feeling of déjà vu like after the Lok Sabha elections of 2019.

Using a sporting analogy, all assumptions appear to have been hit out of the park by the winning duo of Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath. The first among these hypotheses was about the “anger” of the farmers and jats of Western UP. Jayant Chaudhary of the Rashtriya Lok Dal was seen as the new wonder kid on the block who could change the fortunes of the Samajwadi Party alliance. Counterintuitively, the BJP seems to have done exceedingly well in the region and by the looks of it may even improve its tally over 2017.

The second leg on which cheer leaders of Akhilesh Yadav rested their projections was the caste dynamics. They argued that turning the elections into a bipolar contest the caste ‘reengineering’ achieved by Narendra Modi’s BJP since 2014 is likely to come apart. This would be further helped by fault lines within the BJP and its supporters who were unhappy with Rajput dominance under the Yogi administration.

Early defections of Swami Prasad Maurya and OP Rajbhar, who parted their ways with the BJP, were seen as evidence of such a trend. Though the finer split of voting percentages is awaited, it is clear from the results that non-Yadav OBCs did not move to the Samajwadi Party as anticipated.

Claims of better law and order under the BJP government were discounted with cherry picked data and citing isolated incidents. Crisis of jobs was supposed to overshadow the benefits of free ration and other welfare schemes. Election is not won on development opined pundits. Therefore, projects like the Purvanchal Expressway would not sway ordinary voters who do not use highways, they said.

However, the mystifying prognosis was about the impact of Ram Janambhoomi and Kashi Vishwanath Corridor. Some intrepid journalists reported angst among Ayodhya voters regarding alleged land scams. This was believed to be the reason for Yogi Adityanath declining the offer to contest from there.

Similarly, not all were thought to be happy with the development of Kashi. Finally, the ubiquitous stray cattle or “saand” could seal the fate of BJP according to visitors from Delhi trawling the countryside of the state.

Oppn Calculations That Went Awry And Factors That Worked For BJP

While experts will continue to search for the root causes of the calculations gone awry, here are a few submissions.

First, going against popular belief an analysis of recent elections would indicate that the caste factor is overstated. When there are larger issues at stake people tend to vote across caste divide. In Uttar Pradesh itself, this was evident in three assembly elections and two general elections. Secondly, anti-incumbency and disenchantments are a reality for any ruling dispensation.

However, often the constituents judge the previous incumbents on the basis of their efforts and intent. This is weighed against their assessment of the ability of the opposition to deliver on the same factors if voted to power.

Neither the Samajwadi Party, the BSP or the Congress had any concrete plans to show how they are going to address the issue of jobs, law and order and inflation. Unfortunately, SP's own track record on these parameters was not much to talk about from there previous tenure. Instead of addressing these issues positively, they resorted to undermining the BJP’s claims and performance in these areas, which did not quite cut with the voters.

RPN Singh, who joined the BJP from the Congress just before the elections, made a telling point. He said he realised after coming to the BJP that it is not the individuals but the organisation that wins elections. Under Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, the BJP has built upon this strength further in the last eight years

Leaving aside the Congress, which does not even have a skeletal organisation in Uttar Pradesh, and the BSP that has gone into mysterious hibernation, Akhilesh Yadav is also a one-man party. The calibre of his associates are far from impressive. True he gathered crowds, which was enough for many to get carried away and think UP is headed for a “wave” election. But he did not have either the bandwidth or the organisation to convert the enthusiasm to votes. Optics and tactics can take a party only up to a point. Beyond that execution is the key.

It is being suggested by some that Akhilesh could have made a difference by being more visible during the pandemic. This is debatable. Without a “service”-oriented cadre like the BJP or the RSS to help people — only photo-ops would not have helped.

For a long time political scientists have argued, a strong or united opposition can defeat the BJP.

Of late, West Bengal was being cited as an example. But the BJP was a new entrant and challenger there against a well-entrenched party with a solid vote base. In contrast, Uttar Pradesh has shown in 2017, when the Samajwadi Party and the Congress jointly took on BJP, and in 2022 when it was effectively a bi-polar contest, it would need more than arithmetic to beat the BJP in its present avatar.

The aspirations of voters and idiom of politics have changed. Until opposition parties change the old rhetoric and stop looking at the electorate through the socialistic prism of 1970s, ground will further slip from under their feet.

It is time for a drastic reset.

The author is a current affairs commentator, marketer, blogger and leadership coach.

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