Telangana Election 2023: As campaigning for the November 30 Telangana Assembly election enters the decisive phase, it seems BJP has opted out of the race in the southern state where it was hoping to emerge as a key player. According to the ground situation, contrary to the euphoric upsurge of the saffron party in Greater Hyderabad Municipal polls and even the previous Lok Sabha election, where BJP won four seats, the party today finds itself relegated in the face of a sudden, and unexpected Congress revival.
Congress's revival has upset BJP's plans for Telangana, where it was fancying itself as the real challenger to Telangana strongman and Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao or KCR. The conditions were ripe for the BJP -- anti-incumbency, family rule, an element of misgovernance and corruption and an apparent political vacuum after the Congress vanished. Whatever was left of the Congress was poached by ruling BRS. But sadly, BJP lacked overall social acceptance and was working on the ground when Congress began its revival process.
About two and half years ago, Congress, for which Telangana, as part of united Andhra Pradesh, was its bastion, began flexing its muscles. Congress roped in its former colleagues and made Revanth Reddy, a powerful Reddy leader who spent time in all the political formations in Andhra Pradesh, as its Telangana unit head. His good equations with Telugu Desam leaders and cadres helped as he began rebuilding the party in the new Telugu speaking state of Telangana.
Given the fact that Congress always had some support in each village and small town of the state made the party's revival relatively easy and possible. And this was something that BJP did not bargain for. But the moment it realised that it was far away from becoming a strong political force, BJP slowed down and seems to have shifted its focus to Lok Sabha elections due next year rather than the assembly polls.
The BJP's stronger presence would have made the path for a Congress victory easier, and even helped it, because the saffron party was not strong enough to win more than a couple of seats but could have only increased its vote share. In the last assembly elections in 2018, BJP won just won one seat, but bagged four Lok Sabha seats in 2019.
However, in the run-up to the 2023 assembly election, it has become crystal clear that Congress's revival has taken place given the response to the party's mass contact programmes and most notably the craze over Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra. This made the BJP rethink its Telangana strategy. If there is a hung assembly, there are chances that BJP may pitch its tent with the ruling BRS to form a government.
With many opinion polls giving the Congress a chance to win in Telangana, especially after its showing in Karnataka, BJP began working hard to prevent the party from benefitting from a vote split. The first indication came from the BJP’s sudden replacement of its firebrand rabble rouser Bandi Sanjay as the state head. The replacement, Union Minister G Kishan Reddy is seen more as an efficient organisational person who apparently does not go all out as aggressively against KCR as his predecessor.
Under Bandi Sanjay, BJP was growing but was not strong enough to win the state polls. However, it was enough to damage the ruling BRS. In that eventuality, the presence of BJP making it a stronger triangular contest would have only helped the Congress, felt political analyst Dr Harathi Vageesan of Hyderabad.
The BJP’s change in strategy is being interpreted as "a tie up" by the opposition Congress, which has been able to spread this message and narrative that the saffron party and BRS were in cahoots with each other. BJP leaders are trying their best to dispel this narrative in their election speeches. Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah blasted the Telangana government over corruption, besides attacking the "one family" rule being perpetuated in the state.
With three weeks to go for polling, Telangana is witnessing an exciting race between the ruling BRS and challenger Congress. BJP is projected to end up a poor third or even fourth, even behind the AIMIM.
If one went by opinion polls, the chances of both BRS and Congress are equally bright, with more number of pollsters favouring a Congress victory. This is because of strong anti-incumbency, alleged misgovernance of the ruling party and disenchantment with KCR's style of governance. His string of welfare schemes won him a re-election five years ago, but in the second stint, both the government and his party MLAs are afflicted with strong anti-incumbency.
"There sure is an undercurrent of support for the Congress that is growing, and I won’t be surprised if the Congress edges past the ruling BRS," said Dr Harathi Vageesan.
"From now on, it is for the Congress to defeat itself in Telangana as the people are seemingly rooting for it and there is a clamour for change in the state. Now, everything depends on the Congress’s organisational strength, booth-wise poll management and its ability to mobilise voters – all of which depends on cadre strength," he further said.
But one thing the Congress should be thanking is the withdrawal of the Telugu Desam Party from the fray, which otherwise could have split the backward caste votes for the party, Dr Vageesan added.
The author is a Bengaluru-based senior journalist.
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