SP lives to fight another day, but can it win 2017 poll?

It is being said that the feud in the ruling Yadav family in Uttar Pradesh could not have come at a worse time, with an Assembly election round the corner. Voters have begun to view the Samajwadi Party Government with suspicion. They wonder: If the first family cannot remain united, how will it govern if given another opportunity?

The fact is, the feud’s outcome could have been worse had the impending election not constrained the warring players. The two key rivals, Chief Minister Akhliesh Yadav and senior Minister and uncle Shivpal Yadav realise they can live to fight another day if their party does well in the poll. If scores were to be settled now, they would probably be sitting in the opposition benches soon.

A defeat in the Assembly election will be seen as a rejection of both the Chief Minister and Shivpal Yadav. Any amount of mutual blame will not resonate with their supporters and party cadres, less so with the people of the State. Worse, losing power will be a reflection on the weakening hold of the patriarch and SP founder, Mulayam Singh Yadav. Both Akhilesh Yadav and Shivpal Yadav are leaders in their own right, but they still derive their stature from the senior Yadav, whose word is law in the Samajwadi Party and parivar.

It can be argued that the compromise reached days earlier has not held, since Shivpal Yadav has sacked several members of Akhilesh Yadav’s camp from positions they held. Such muscle-flexing will continue, and possibly Akhliesh Yadav will reciprocate in his own way. But neither he nor Shivpal Yadav will upset the SP applecart for now. Not until the election result at least.



The early-2017 election has come as a blessing in disguise in another way for the beleaguered SP. The Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party may have been scathing in their criticism of the events that have unfolded within the ruling party, Government and the Yadav family. But neither wants the Samajwadi Party to collapse in a heap. The BJP calculates that a supremely weakened SP will allow the Bahujan Samaj Party to walk away with a large chunk of Muslim votes.

An ‘ideal’ distribution of such votes between the BSP and the SP offers the BJP a better chance of winning more seats. But if there is a near one-sided migration of the votes, the BSP, along with its Dalit vote-bank and a sprinkling of Brahmin votes, can romp home, leaving the BJP behind.

In such a scenario, the BJP can write off its chances of coming to power after nearly two decades in the State. Even if it clobbers together the support of the upper castes and a large section of the non-Yadav OBCs, it cannot be certain of reaching the half-way mark. That can happen if the minority votes are divided between the SP and the BSP in nearly equally measure. Further, a strong SP gives tonic to the BJP to appeal to its voters who are disgusted with the Mulayam Singh Yadav brand of secularism.



In case the SP fails to revive, the BJP’s best case scenario will be a hung Assembly, where it can negotiate with the BSP to share power. It’s not a prospect that will have BJP workers and leaders swooning with anticipation. It has done business with Mayawati before and ended up looking very foolish. It’s an interesting situation: To avoid forming a Government with a party it does not want to align with, the BJP wants the party it will not form a coalition regime with, to remain strong.

The Congress has different calculations. Both Rahul Gandhi and Akhliesh Yadav seem to like each other a lot, and can do business post-results if the situation warrants. The Congress will be happier with the SP than with the BSP.

A greatly weakened SP brings no benefit to Rahul Gandhi’s party. The Brahmins the Congress is wooing are not the SP’s votes-bank. They are going in the BJP’s direction, despite dams the Congress has set up in the form of Sheila Dikshit etc to change their course. If the minorities dump the SP, most will still keep away from the Congress.

The only hope for the Congress lies in the numbers it can manage. If it gets just a handful of seats, it will be in no position to influence Government formation – any Government formation. A hung House is good news for the grand old party only if emerges as a major player.

Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.