The talk of simultaneous Lok Sabha and State Vidhan Sabha polls could well be a test balloon floated by the BJP. On the face of it many of the arguments proffered are convincing. It would, indeed, cut down the cost of holding elections. Polling throughout the year puts enormous strain on security forces. Reducing frequency of elections should allow their deployment for more productive purposes.
At the same time, some of the objections raised about the feasibility of such an idea are real. How will one deal with early dissolution of assemblies? What if the Central Government itself falls before completion of its five-year term? These are questions for the Law Commission and Election Commission to ponder over. But, what could be Narendra Modi’s motive for pushing “one nation, one poll” at this juncture? This has left the opposition parties flummoxed with less than a year to go for the next Lok Sabha elections.
There are many theories on how such a mega move is likely to benefit the BJP. Smaller parties are unsure about how it will affect their own prospects. Chandrababu Naidu has said simultaneous polls will put regional parties at a disadvantage. Others like JDU, SP, SAD and TRS have supported the idea in principle. But, they too have questioned its feasibility. Trinamool Congress and the Left parties, CPI and CPIM, have rejected the idea outright. Congress has reserved its opinion for consultation with its allies. The original proponent of the idea - BJP – has sought more time to respond, much to the surprise of others.
Of course, the biggest justification for holding simultaneous polls is better governance. Frequent polls keep the nation on a perpetual election mode. That comes in the way of taking unpopular decisions fearing backlash at every step. Sometimes, electoral compulsions force governments to take imprudent populist steps. Injudicious waiver of agricultural loans is an obvious case in point. Narendra Modi may think such political roadblocks waylaid him in the last four years.
The earlier speculation was Modi might bring the Lok Sabha elections forward. State Elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Mizoram are coming up. It might be possible to hold them along with Lok Sabha polls with some change of dates. That would be a significant step towards simultaneous polls.
Politicians seldom do anything without self-interest. Surveys indicate considerable anti-incumbency against BJP at the grass roots. Yet, Narendra Modi's personal popularity remains high. So, he may try to neutralise the disenchantment at the state level with his own charisma. But, the ground has shifted a little in the last few months that might prompt him to rethink strategy.
First, the opposition unity has gained traction after tasting success in some by-polls. Results in Gujarat and Karnataka have also boosted their confidence. To use a new cliché, Modi no longer looks invincible.
Although the economy is showing signs of looking up, the news is not so good on other fronts. Agrarian crisis is real. The opposition is able to whip up farmer anger. The middle class is feeling the pinch. Small and medium enterprises have still not been able to digest the bitter GST pill. Big businessmen are lamenting their loss of influence. The hyperactive Taxman is adding to their woes. Real estate remains depressed. The situation on jobs is an enigma
Bank scams and absconding defaulters overshadow reforms like the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. Add to that the news of ballooning Swiss Bank deposit of Indians and increase in the cash economy. That pours cold water over the governments' ability and intention to control black money. It also makes allegations of crony capitalism and failure of demonetisation stick.
On the Foreign Policy, Modi has lost much of his bragging rights with a series of setbacks. Once friendly, regional neighbour like Maldives and Nepal are visibly peeved. China has shown who is the boss. The much-vaunted "Quad" initiative in the Indian Ocean is in quandary. The US is being churlish over Harley-Davidson and buying aircrafts from Russia. The meltdown in Kashmir has dented the 56-inch chest image gained by the 'surgical strikes'.
Meanwhile, communal incidents, lynching and rape continue to make headlines. There is little respite from the endemic verbal diarrhoea of BJP Motor-mouths. Though ridden by contradictions, efforts for opposition unity is gaining traction. They are receiving enthusiastic support from cheerleaders in the eco-system.
Looking at inter and intra party dynamics, most allies of BJP appear miffed. The Shiv Sena is the most vocal of the lot but Nitish Kumar (JDU) and the Paswans (LJP) are sending mixed signals. Amit Shah's forays into new geographies of Bengal and the South are not inspiring. Inside the party, some recent incidents - such as the Sushma Swaraj episode - are showing signs of stress.
Deciding poll timing is always a gamble for the ruling dispensation. Intelligence inputs that leaders rely upon are often off the mark. The current backdrop makes it even more complex. Modi may be counting on a good monsoon and an economic uptick. He could also have some political masterstrokes up his sleeves for changing the mood.
At the same time, giving the opposition a long window to re-group can also be risky. Though one can hope for egos to unravel with everyone jockeying for place at the head table. Here, the strategy of Congress and regional parties may not coincide. This is already evident even in the law commission consultations.
For the Congress, it makes sense to go for separate state polls. If they do well in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, it would be an advantage over peers. In contrast, it is also the reason why the smaller parties may prefer combined polls. In a pan-India understanding, the state parties would have greater bargaining power. But, Congress would be the prima donna if it wins the three Hindi-belt Vidhan Sabhas. That is not a prospect that the regional leaders like Mamata and Mayawati will relish.
The BJP would no doubt prefer parallel polls. They can focus on the big national picture with Narendra Modi in front. Congress and the regional parties will remain embroiled at the state level. This would make it tough for the opposition to balance their acts at national and state levels.
But, all this could be idle kite flying. The Election Commission can force the government's hand calling the Polls on schedule. BJP cannot leave anything to chance. They must prepare for both scenarios. So, we are already seeing them in campaign mode.
At this point one can only say, the BJP cannot afford to have Lok Sabha elections in 2018, as some were predicting. If the Election Commission does not postpone the state elections, BJP has to go all out to retain the key states. For that, the RSS has to play a major role. Narendra Modi alone will not be able to pull it off. This is evident from some state level changes happening in the BJP and RSS organisation.
Whether stand-alone or joint, 2019 Lok Sabha elections will be on a scale no one can imagine. The Ardh-Kumbh is slated for January 2019 in Allahabad. But, this will be the "Maha-Kumbh" of democracy. Or, as the Americans say, if one thought 2014 was big, then "we ain't seen nothing yet".
(Author is a writer and popular blogger on current affairs. His Twitter handle is @SandipGhose)
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