Raje Factor To Lack Of Jat Face: Why Rajasthan Won't Be Cakewalk For BJP Despite Opinion Poll Push

The state of Rajasthan is all set to vote on November 25. In the upcoming state elections of five major states, Rajasthan is undoubtedly one of the most significant ones where the ruling party has not made a comeback since 1993. As the political landscape unfolds, all eyes are fixed on the desert state, which is of paramount significance in the Hindi heartland and has been at the centre of attention in recent years. Regrettably, both the ruling Congress and the opposition BJP have predominantly garnered media coverage for internal discord within their respective parties.

With the trend for three decades showing that the state gives chance to a new government every five years, it becomes evident that the BJP stands to gain an advantage. Opinion polls also point to such an eventuality. Considering the prevailing political landscape, across India in general and Rajasthan in particular, however, it is imperative to acknowledge the stark contrasts that exist when compared to the past. And hence, merely adhering to the prevailing trend may prove to be a misguided approach, fraught with potential pitfalls and shortcomings.

In the realm of Indian politics, the organisational prowess of the BJP and the charisma of Prime Minister Narendra Modi are no hidden secrets. Numerous political analysts and observers have documented their formidable political apparatus as an anchor of their strength. The winds of electoral fortune have been blowing in their direction, with a series of opinion polls, including the ABP-CVoter survey, forecasting a favourable outcome for the saffron party. However, it's important to pause and take a nuanced look at the political landscape. Even though the ABP-CVoter survey predicts a BJP majority, an intriguing fact is worth noting: Congress Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is still the most popular choice among the people. This juxtaposition brings us to an essential aspect of the electoral narrative: acknowledging the BJP's strengths while scrutinising the cracks in their strategy and significant missteps within the Rajasthan battleground.

Sidelining Vasundhara Raje: A Risky Gamble

Let's delve into the enigmatic persona of Vasundhara Raje, a towering figure who has long reigned supreme within the BJP in Rajasthan and formerly served as its chief minister. Her political acumen and charismatic presence have been the driving forces behind the party's enduring stronghold in the state. However, winds of change are sweeping through the political landscape. Though Raje has got the BJP ticket to contest the upcoming election from Jhalrapatan, the fact that she is being sidelined has been evident and presents a significant challenge for the saffron party. The consequences of this shift are palpable, and various reasons underpin this transformation.

For years, Raje's strong personality, penchant for autonomy, and illustrious royal lineage have propelled her to the forefront of Rajasthan's political stage. These attributes allowed her to steer the state's politics with a firm hand. Yet, the winds of change within the BJP's leadership have altered the political landscape. The new leadership has a different perspective on the once-admired traits that defined Raje.

As Raje's political star gradually wanes, a pivotal question looms large over the BJP's Rajasthan campaign: who will rise as the guiding beacon in the party's quest to recapture the state? The answer to this question remains shrouded in uncertainty. However, it is undeniable that the sidelining of Vasundhara Raje constitutes a formidable obstacle in the BJP's pursuit of political resurgence in Rajasthan.

Lack Of A Compelling Counter-Narrative

Rajasthan's political landscape is poised for a fiercely contested election in 2023, with the ruling Congress and the opposition BJP both grappling to craft compelling narratives that resonate with the electorate.

The Congress, under the leadership of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, has prioritised welfare programmes and social justice initiatives. This approach has earned the party support from a significant section of the electorate, especially the poor and marginalised.

The BJP, on the other hand, has struggled to articulate a clear and coherent vision for Rajasthan. The party has struggled due to internal conflicts within its leadership and a lack of a charismatic local face.

This vacuum has allowed Gehlot to shape the narrative of the upcoming elections. He has positioned himself as a champion of the poor and marginalised and has highlighted the Congress' track record of implementing welfare programmes. The BJP's challenge is to counter this narrative by offering a credible alternative. The party needs to articulate a vision for Rajasthan that is aspirational and inclusive and that addresses the concerns of all sections of society.

Lack Of Cohesion On Compelling Local Face 

In the absence of a compelling local face, the BJP will likely rely heavily on the charisma of PM Modi to see it through in the upcoming elections. However, Modi's popularity alone may not be enough, given the Congress's strong focus on welfare and social justice. The BJP also needs to address the internal divisions within its leadership. The party's central leadership needs to project a united front and a clear vision for Rajasthan.

The 2023 Rajasthan elections will be a battle of narratives. The Congress has had a headstart, but the BJP has the potential to turn things around if it can craft a compelling narrative and address its internal challenges. The BJP's internal tussles are a major liability for the party in Rajasthan. The lack of a clear consensus on the party's face has created a sense of uncertainty and instability. This could alienate voters and benefit the Congress. The BJP's central leadership needs to urgently address the internal divisions within the party and project a united front. The party needs to project a clear vision for Rajasthan and a credible CM face if it hopes to challenge the Congress effectively in the upcoming elections.

It is also essential to note that smaller regional parties like the RLP, BSP, and BTP play a significant electoral role in Rajasthan politics. Sachin Pilot, who led the Congress in the most recent assembly elections, was unable to become the CM because he was not a unifying figure. To form a government and reach at a consensus candidate for the CM post, the party will need a strong unifying figure capable of uniting these smaller parties in favour of the BJP.

Caste Dynamics and the Jat Factor

Rajasthan, like many parts of India, is inextricably tied to the intricate web of caste dynamics. The role of the Jat community in shaping the state's political trajectory cannot be overstated. Traditionally, the Jats have been a critical pillar of support for the BJP. Their votes have often tilted the scales in the party's favor. However, a formidable obstacle emerges in the form of Hanuman Beniwal, the former BJP leader who now heads the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party. Beniwal, with his newfound political clout, poses a threat to the BJP's traditional hold over Jat votes. In specific constituencies, he may now siphon these votes away from the BJP, thereby further complicating the party's electoral calculations.

BJP's Tightrope Walk

While the BJP can boast of a robust organisational structure in Rajasthan, their path to electoral success remains precarious. It rests on the delicate balance of capitalising on anti-incumbency sentiments against CM Gehlot, leveraging internal dissatisfaction within the Congress, and harnessing the magnetic appeal of PM Modi. The political calculus is clear: the BJP must not rest on its laurels. Past achievements won't suffice to win the electoral battle. The party needs to craft a dynamic and persuasive narrative that resonates with the aspirations of the electorate. It is a tightrope walk that demands astute political manoeuvring and a deep understanding of the state's intricacies.

Congress' Internal Quagmire

The Congress, however, is far from being a passive spectator in this political spectacle. While they aspire to present a united front against the BJP, the party grapples with its own demons. Factionalism and internal strife continue to plague the Congress, raising concerns about its ability to mount a formidable challenge. In the tumultuous world of Indian politics, a divided house can seldom stand strong against a formidable opponent. The Congress's internal quagmire is, therefore, a self-inflicted wound that they cannot afford as they seek to retain power in the state.

Gehlot's Governance Challenges

CM Gehlot's administration in Rajasthan has placed a significant emphasis on welfare programmes and social justice initiatives. This approach has garnered support and praise from various sections of the electorate. However, governance challenges persist. Maintaining law and order, a fundamental tenet of any successful administration, has emerged as a critical challenge. Communal tensions, too, continue to simmer beneath the surface, and addressing these issues requires a deft hand and strategic policymaking. In the face of these challenges, the Congress must demonstrate that their welfare programmes are not empty gestures but backed by effective governance.

In conclusion, the political battleground in Rajasthan is anything but a cakewalk. The state, with its rich political legacy and intricate caste dynamics, presents a formidable challenge to both the BJP and the Congress. Rajasthan is a political crucible where fortunes can change swiftly, and each move and misstep has profound implications for the political future of this northwestern gem.

As the political temperature rises, the state promises to be a battleground where every vote, every constituency, and every political manoeuvre will shape the destiny of this complex and politically vibrant region. The voters of Rajasthan now hold the key to determining which party can rise above these challenges and navigate the political labyrinth to claim victory in the forthcoming electoral duel. The stage is set, and the drama is about to unfold in a state that remains at the heart of India's political narrative.

The author teaches journalism at St. Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata, and is a political columnist.

[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP Network Pvt. Ltd.]