Politics Behind 'PM Aspirant' Nitish Kumar's Release Of Anand Mohan Singh In Bihar

(From L to R) Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar with former MP Anand Mohan ( Image Source :PTI )

The release of convicted gangster-turned-politician Anand Mohan Singh by 'Sushasan babu' Nitish Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan government in Bihar has raised eyebrows across the nation. How come Nitish, who boasts of a clean image and is nursing national ambitions, risks such misadventure? It's all about political compulsions. 

Janata Dal (United) needs to retain a majority of the 16 seats it won in 2019 Lok Sabha polls in an alliance with the BJP to keep Nitish Kumar's prime ministerial ambitions alive. These seats were won with support of BJP. When JD(U) contested alone, after severing ties with BJP in 2014, it could barely win two seats in a triangular contest.

As per CSDS, 25 per cent of votes received by BJP allies was due to the Modi factor. While it's true that JD(U) could compensate for loss of BJP votes through Congress and Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, Nitish is fully aware that Lok Sabha elections are fought on national issues where the PM face becomes a key voting consideration. 

While the alliance is pretty strong from a state election point of view as BJP doesn't have any leader to match Nitish-Tejashwi charisma, general elections are a cause of worry for the JD(U) supremo. 

Nitish Kumar Eyeing Rajput Votes By Releasing Anand Mohan?

Nitish, over the years, has developed a loyal vote bank of Kurmis, Koreis, MBC/EBC and Mahadalits. RJD has loyal support of Yadavs and Muslims. Together, 50-60 per cent of the population is their support base. 

Nitish, aware of challenges, is making an attempt to expand his vote bank. The upper caste, which includes Brahmins, Rajputs, Bhumihars and others, account for 15 per cent of population and have been backing the BJP.

Source: Survey Reports, News Reports

About 63 per cent of the upper caste voted for the BJP in 2014 general election. This increased to 73 per cent in alliance with JD(U) in 2019. Rajputs constitute 3-5 per cent of the population and are one of the most influential communities in Bihar, accounting for the second highest number of MLAs (28) in the Assembly after Yadavs (52). 

Former MP Anand Mohan Singh, convicted for the murder of a Dalit IAS officer, was released on Thursday along with 26 others who have been lodged in different prisons of the state for more than 14 years after the Bihar government tweaked prison rules. He is an influential Rajput leader of Bihar with a "Robinhood" image. 

Nitish hopes to wean away Rajput votes from BJP through this deft move, which should be criticised at all costs. Brahmins and Rajputs are mostly at loggerheads with each other and are engaged in upmanship in the Hindi heartland. Nitish hopes to exploit this rivalry between the two communities and bring Rajputs onboard to expand his social coalition. 

Could this move harm his national image? Nitish probably feels that if the release of Bilkis Bano rape convicts in Gujarat didn’t harm Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image, why should it harm him? People anyways have a very short memory.

Catch-22 Situation For BJP In Bihar

For BJP, It is a catch-22 situation in Bihar. It has not been very vocal and strong in protesting Anand Mohan's release in the fear of antagonising an influential community. While some leaders and IT cells of the party have termed it a return of "jungle raj" in Bihar, spokespersons are denying coming on national TV debates on this topic. 

How can BJP attack Nitish when it used the same remission rules to release Bilkis Bano convicts in Gujarat? It highlights the famous adage "hamam mein sabhi nange hain" for Indian politics and politicians. 

Some Dalit social organisations have already moved Patna High Court challenging the order. 

About 20 per cent of JD(U) voters belong to the upper caste due to its historical ties (alliance) with the saffron party. Anand Mohan's release is with an eye on retaining the majority of this support base. However, another 19 per cent of his voters are Dalits. Has he risked angering Dalits to garner Rajput community support?

Source: Author's Calculations from Post Poll / Exit Poll Data

There is 16 per cent SC population in Bihar that has been divided into Dalits (6%) and Mahadalits (10%) by Nitish for reservation and other benefits. With this move, which he made years ago, Nitish managed to reduce the influence of Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP, which now caters only to Paswans who are not included in Mahadalit category. 

This way he has created a loyal vote bank of Mahadalits. Nitish hopes they would continue to back him as they are now getting benefits of schemes that were largely being pocketed by upper social groups like Paswans.  

To sum up, Nitish knows that to fulfil his prime ministerial ambitions, he needs to win seats, and for that, Bihar is most relevant and important. Only time will tell whether the risk of releasing Anand Mohan pays off for him or not. While the odds are high, his national image and Dalit support could take a beating.

The author is a SEBI-registered investment advisor.

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