Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar Or Someone Else? 5 Factors Congress Should Consider As It Picks Karnataka CM

Who will be Karnataka CM? The Congress high command is faced with the task of taking a very difficult decision. Deft handling is needed to achieve a delicate balance.

The Congress won Karnataka handsomely, getting its only second election victory since 2018, but the grand old party is now faced with a big dilemma: who should be made the chief ninister? An open power tussle is brewing between former chief minister Siddaramaiah and Karnataka Congress president DK Shivakumar supporters in the form of poster wars, with the posturing spilling on to social media also. While Siddaramaiah is a mass leader and has a bigger fan following, he was much ahead of Shivakumar in the 'best CM' rating across all opinon surveys, Shivakumar is a strong organisational man, always strategising and providing resources for the party.

The team of observers is likely to hold discussions with the national leadership and then make a decision. Both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar are likely to be in Delhi. Shivakumar, who is celebrating his 62nd birthday today, May 15, has said he would abide by the party high command's decision. What is complicating the matters is the fact that Lingayat and Dalit MLAs are demanding that the chief minister should be from their communities. 

Who Will Be Karnataka CM? 5 Factors To Be Considered

1. Who has highest support of MLAs

The most democratic manner is that the leader who enjoys the support of the highest number of MLAs should be made the CM. This removes discretion and arbitrariness from the process. While a standard resolution has been passed authorising the high command to take the decision, a secret ballot along with consultations have been held with each MLA. The weakening of the high command over the years has robbed them of the moral authority to hoist their person of choice on the top post. Further, since the victory has been attributed to local factors, it will be wise that local leaders choose their leader. 

2. Who would boost party’s prospects in 2024 general elections

The next big test for the Karnataka Congress leaders is the general elections scheduled to be held next year. Party president Mallikarjun Kharge has given a call of “BJP-mukt South India”. The Congress needs to win maximum seats out of the 29 Lok Sabha constituencies. Currently, it has only one. The party has made five big promises, which can cause a severe strain on the state's finances. The CM should not only ensure stability but also create a good perception among the voters about governance. In a way, the party could pitch its Karnataka model of welfarism to the voters in the Lok Sabha polls since 2004.

3. Who can create bigger caste coalition 

Caste is cast in stone in Karnataka. Siddaramaiah is a Kuruba (7% population) while Shivakumar comes from the Vokkaliga community (11% population). Siddaramaiah has been able to revive the AHINDA vote block both in 2013 and 2023. He is considered a leader of the poor, downtrodden and minorities. The AHINDA population is much higher than Vokkaligas who account for 2/3rd of the state population. On the other hand, Vokkaliga is an influential community with an ability to pull votes of SC-ST-minorities. The poor in large numbers have backed the Congress in Karnataka. But Vokkaligas have been backing the BJP in Lok Sabha for many years now. 

4. Who is the future of the party

Siddaramaiah has announced this was his last election. He is 75 years of age, while Shivakumar, at 62, has age on his side and can wait out for his turn. Siddaramaiah is the past while Shivakumar is the future of the party. The Congress faces a similar dilemma in Rajasthan. How do you manage both?

5. Who can cause maximum damage or split if denied CM post

This can turn out to be one of the most important reasons. Many times a leader’s strength is derived from how much damage they can inflict. Shivakumar is a hardcore Congressman, ideological worker of the party. There is less likelihood of him rebelling, taking MLAs away, joining hands with the BJP. Siddaramaiah, on the other hand, is still considered an outsider in the party. He joined the Congress in 2006 after being sacked from the JD(S). He has friends in both JD(S) and BJP. He is a true politician, and his loyalty can't be vouched for.  

The other approach could be to adopt a compromise formula in case both leaders fail to reconcile and accept each other’s candidature for the CM post. As many as 36 Lingayat MLAs have won on Congress ticket, while the corresponding number for SC-ST candidates is 35. This block is demanding their own Lingayat or Dalit CM. If a majority of these 71 MLAs do not back down, a dark horse could emerge as the CM face. 

In 2013, Kharge lost out to Siddaramaiah in the CM race. Dalit MLAs may want this to be corrected with the appointment of a SC face. If Kharge still holds a grudge against Siddaramaiah, it could make his case difficult. Many channels are reporting that Dalit MLAs want Kharge as the CM. However, this may not look good on the party that just finally managed to shut many mouths by electing a non-Gandhi national president. While this will also be a demotion for the national president, there is a precedent in Congress when the national president of the party was also simultaneously a chief minister — Neelam Sanjiva Reddy. He was the CM of Andhra Pradesh from 1962-64 and Congress president from 1960-63. So why should Kharge be ruled out as Karnataka CM, his supporters could argue. If given a chance, Kharge could also put up his son Priyank, a three-time MLA, but that would look brazenly dynastic. 

This narrative may also be pushed by Gandhi loyalists who now would want them to get back the president chair and lead the party in 2024, especially since the party prospects have now received a boost.

It is another big human pesource test for Congress High Command. Can it without any controversy and with ease put in place a government after such a big victory? The party has got things wrong many times before, so supporters are worried. 

The best solution may still be to have a rotation formula with Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar sharing the CM tenure for two and a half years each. However, Shivakumar may not take the bait after the proposed idea failed in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. This time, the Congress will have to make a public announcement and ask Siddaramaiah to give a statement agreeing to this formula which can be used later on if he backtracks. A post-dated resignation letter of Siddaramaiah can also be taken in advance and made public after the end of his tenure if Siddaramaiah dithers. Shivakumar could be offered a Deputy CM post until then. 

Other factors like ED investigations against Shivakumar will be considered too. His known bete noire and Karnataka DGP Praveen Sood has been made the next CBI chief, in an indication of things to come. 

The Congress high command is faced with the task of taking a very difficult decision. Deft handling is needed to achieve a delicate balance.

The author is a political commentator and SEBI-registered investment advisor.

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