The comprehensive victory of the Congress in Karnataka has set off a debate on its impact in the months to follow. Primarily focused on the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the consensus among the commentariat is that the result presages a revival for the Grand Old Party. It would be a tad premature to come to that conclusion though, especially if these analyses don’t take into account the factors that worked for the Congress in Karnataka.


Going by the numbers alone, Congress managed to raise its vote share by 5 points to 43 per cent in Karnataka, which is close to what it polled in its heydays in 1989. Even in 1999, when the Congress won 132 seats, its vote share stood 2 percentage points less than what it has polled now. Having lost out on the support of the Lingayats in northern Karnataka in the past, the Congress has seemingly managed to get back to its good books in this election. 


Just as importantly, Congress managed to do it without alienating any of the other communities. There is an element of social engineering here, and having due representation of leaders from all the major communities helped the party’s prospects. There might be those who dismiss the Congress win as a “Southern phenomenon”. But that would not be entirely accurate, and there are lessons to be extrapolated to the Hindi belt, which could even have a bearing in the Lok Sabha polls.


It needs to be recalled here that the Congress base in Karnataka saw an erosion following the growth of the BJP in the state from 2004. With the two major Other Backward Classes (OBC) communities — Lingayats and the Vokkaligas — backing the Yediyurappa-led BJP and the Deve Gowda-led JD (S), respectively, the Congress was left with the AHINDA coalition comprising the Dalits, Muslims, Adivasis and other backward classes. 


This time around, the Congress managed to take all the major communities into confidence and, barring coastal Karnataka – where religious polarisation and the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) cut into its votes — and to a lesser extent in Bengaluru, it dominated every region in the state to roundly trump the BJP. The Congress campaign in Karnataka was backed by five guarantees which, apart from the outreach to communities, truly gave it an aura of social justice. 


Mandal Vs Kamandal Redux In 2024


It was Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin who recently initiated a meeting of opposition parties on the social justice platform. Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, too, has been going around meeting leaders to get more regional parties into the opposition mix. A major rallying point for these regional parties is the issue of holding a caste census, an issue which holds electoral potential.


The Congress has also taken up the issue lately, marking an interesting turn in the social justice politics of the country. That gives the opposition a sense of purpose, a common cause, apart from the single-minded opposition to Narendra Modi. If this issue blows up, the 2024 elections could see a repeat of the Mandal versus Kamandal politics that played out in the early 1990s’, with caste politics as a counter to the BJP’s Hindutva Nationalism pitch. 


The assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh saw this playing out in a different fashion, but the gains that the Samajwadi Party (SP) made through social engineering was blunted by the BJP’s own deployment of the strategy to bolster its Hindutva plank, and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) playing spoiler. Thus, defeating the Narendra Modi-led BJP is not going to be all that easy. It would require seat adjustments among the opposition bloc, to begin with. 


Congress In The Hindi Belt


Before the Mandal politics was set in motion by then Prime Minister VP Singh’s August 15 Independence Day address in 1990, the Congress pretty much had a solid base among various caste groups across the Hindi heartland. It varied from state to state. For instance, in Gujarat, it had the KHAM — Kshatriya, Harijan (Dalit), Adivasi and Muslim — combination going for it while it was a combination of Brahmin, Kshatriya, Dalit and Muslim in Uttar Pradesh. 


The Congress had its base equally among those in the upper echelons of the social hierarchy as it did among the poorest, which was unique in its construct. In fact, Indira Gandhi used to famously mock the Jan Sangh (the precursor to the BJP) as a “party of Banias”, much to the consternation of the likes of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, with the saffron party’s base limited to the trader community back then. 


In the post-Mandal scenario, however, the Congress lost its upper caste base to the BJP, and its Dalit vote bank to parties such as the Kanshi Ram-led BSP in Uttar Pradesh (UP). It was merely left with the Muslim vote bank in UP and Bihar, and even they began to drift away to vote tactically with the rise of the BJP. To win back some of these caste blocs, the Congress can try and replicate its Karnataka model in states where it still has satraps and a semblance of organisation.


UP And Karnataka: Apples And Oranges


However, there is one major difference between Karnataka and UP, where it is easier to sway people on communal lines, and where the equilibrium has clearly shifted rightwards. One recent example might illustrate this difference: When the BJP recently floated a mythical theory in Karnataka that two Vokkaliga clansmen – Uri Gowda and Nanje Gowda – killed Tipu Sultan, unlike historical accounts which indicate his end came at the hands of the British, the Adichunchanagiri Vokkaliga Mutt came forward to warn the BJP against the peddling of such fictional characters. 


So, Congress will have an uphill task to replicate the Karnataka strategy in politically crucial states such as UP. The social justice plank, nevertheless, is one issue where things could be pulled back, even in the face of the opening of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya ahead of the 2024 election.


The Decline Of The BSP


With the terminal decline of the BSP and the chance elevation of Mallikarjun Kharge as its president, the Congress has an opening to win its Dalit constituency back across the country. Getting the backing of the intermediate castes, first at the state level and then in a national election will not be a cakewalk for sure. 


It is for Congress to chalk out a strategy to win over the caste blocs in the Hindi heartland on the social justice plank. Its rights-driven welfarist model and even the NYAY (Nyuntam Aay Yojana) which it devised ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election ties in well with this narrative. The caste census could be a good start to unite the major opposition parties, and it is up to Congress to take the learnings from Karnataka and replicate them elsewhere.


The author is a journalist and columnist based in South India.


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