The year 2024 is going to be crucial not just for India, when the country will be faced with general elections, but it will be critical also for New Delhi’s closest neighbour Bangladesh, particularly for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. She once again wades through the arduous challenges of managing Washington, which has once again taken a pre-emptive policy move, essentially threatening Dhaka of “undermining the democratic election”.
While many in India reacted with a sense of shock and called it somewhat unprecedented even as they read the statement issued by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on May 24, 2023, Indian policymakers will tell you that they were expecting Washington to come up with such a move sooner or later. Because this is what the US did last time too, in 2018, when PM Hasina came back to power for the third consecutive term amid massive incidents of violence.
On May 3, the announcement of which was made through the issuance of May 24 statement, the US indirectly warned Bangladesh that under its new visa policy concerning ‘Section 212(a)(3)(C) (“3C”) of the Immigration and Nationality Act’, Washington will “be able to restrict the issuance of visas for any Bangladeshi individual, believed to be responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh”. Yes, it refers to “any Bangladeshi individual”.
In 2019, as people in the know within India’s intelligence apparatus tell me, India had to act as a “guarantor” in ensuring that the US supports the Bangladesh election results of December 2018 when Hasina witnessed a landslide victory and her Awami League party came back to power riding over 288 out of the 300 Parliamentary seats. The opposition, led by Bangladesh National Party (BNP), condemned the results and called it “farcical” even as there were reports of violence and rigging, resulting in the death of about 20 people.
Not the one to sit quietly, the US jumped to the occasion and was not willing to support the Hasina government, according to the people quoted above, and believed that she had “manipulated” the votes even as Washington wanted opposition leader, BNP’s Khaleda Zia — arch rival of PM Hasina — to have a fair chance to fight the elections. However, Zia was sent to jail a year before the elections on graft charges – — matter that is hitherto debated in Bangladesh. At that time, it was India, with its deft diplomacy, that was able to pacify Washington and push the Donald Trump administration to “recognise and accept” the 2018 results.
New Delhi, which was able to conclude the historic Land Boundary Agreement (LBA) in 2015, had assured the US at that time that Hasina’s will be a “stable” government that will work towards US’ strategic and economic interest in the region, and Dhaka will keep China at bay and continue playing the fine balancing game. While business ties between the US and Bangladesh grew, with slight nudging from New Delhi, Hasina continued to have tiffs with the US in the course of time. The US too continued to remain in close contact with Zia, despite them being an ally with Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), a radical Islamist group.
An editorial by the New York Times at that time called the 2018 elections in Bangladesh “farcical”, while it questioned the authenticity of the elections and said Hasina “didn’t need to cheat to win re-election”. It even said her achievements will now be “tainted by her authoritarian methods and repressive measures".
In 2020, former US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, who was one of the first top-ranking US officials to visit Dhaka in more than decade, was believed to have consulted India beforehand, according to intelligence sources, in order to bring Dhaka under the ambit of America’s Indo-Pacific policy, thereby reducing its tilt on China. Bangladesh’s relationship with China has continued to remain ambivalent and complex.
Last month, Hasina visited the US in a much-needed step for her government but protests on the streets of Washington DC by BNP as well as Awami League supporters put a question mark on the trip. The BNP called the visit a “zero”.
What Dhaka Thinks
Much to everyone’s surprise, instead of calling the US’ statement as an interference in the elections of a sovereign country, Dhaka responded rather benignly and said: “Bangladesh would like to view this announcement in the broader context of its government’s unequivocal commitment to holding free and fair elections at all levels for upholding the country’s democratic process. Under Hon’ble Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, Bangladesh remains a democratic and politically stable nation with experience of holding a series of elections at national and local levels.”
The Hasina government was, like always, quick to showcase its economic achievements as a defence to Hasina’s government. It said that under Hasina, since 2008, there has been reduction of headcount poverty from 41.5 per cent in 2006 to 18.7 per cent in 2022, and of extreme poverty from 25.1 percent to 5.6 percent during the same period.
“Now an international role model for development, Bangladesh has become eligible for graduation from the UN Least Developed Country (LDC) status by 2026. These have been achieved due to the Awami League government being elected to office for three consecutive terms over the last fourteen years,” the government said in reply to Blinken’s warning.
And needless to say, that the opposition BNP was quick to latch on to it knowing all too well that Hasina could never enter the good books of the White House. A senior leader of the BNP commented that no elections under Hasina will ever be free. Bangladesh’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Md. Shahriar Alam, meanwhile, said that the US' move “does not bother” Hasina’s government and that it is the BNP that should be “worried”.
Bangladesh has, meanwhile, directed the US towards the outcome of the local Gazipur City Corporation (GCC) polls, which the Awami League members claimed was held in a “free, fair and peaceful manner”, and that “democracy has won”, which they said was “lauded abroad", and that "Awami League did not interfere in the polls to make its candidate win”, in an obvious reference to the US.
Bangladesh watchers in India believe that the US’ move was “calibrated” and it will be difficult for India to do a 2019 with the US, now that America is being ruled by the Democrats, who have always questioned Hasina’s human rights track record and her way of governance. For India, an Awami League government is key to push forward its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy in an already fraught neighbourhood than a BNP, which has never been much helpful towards New Delhi.
Hasina is now slated to come to India in September, and she might also attend the G20 Summit as a ‘guest country’ on special invitation by India. But it remains to be seen if this will translate into India once again mollycoddling the US in her favour. It will not be easy for India this time to placate the US concerns.
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